Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 220748
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
248 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 248 AM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

Patchy fog will continue to develop along a surface ridge axis
through eastern IA and into central/eastern MO early this morning;
however, some light surface flow has kept visibilities from
dropping far enough to warrant an advisory in far eastern parts of
the forecast area. Scattered to broken cirrus will also continue
to stream across the region this morning, but should gradually
thin and will not have a significant impact on temperatures today.

Large-scale ridging will expand and build across the central CONUS
over the forecast period, resulting in an extended period of well
above-normal temperatures beginning today. Highs will reach the
mid 80s to lower 90s each day this week, and the overarching
pattern will support mainly dry conditions especially through the
work week. The trough previously expected to carve out the eastern
side of the ridge and bring slightly cooler, wetter conditions by
the weekend has trended northward in the latest model solutions;
and while a "cold" front still pushes through the region this
weekend, lacking upper support will result in little impact on
temperatures and lesser potential for widespread precipitation.

Both the EC and GFS bring a tropical system into the southeast US
by the end of the weekend or early next week, and without any real
steering flow across the central and eastern CONUS it is possible
that the remnants of the system could have an impact on the region
as early as the end of the forecast period. However, the longevity
of this system (if it even materializes) will be very dependent
on its strength when it moves inland, and small differences in the
pattern could prevent it from reaching even southern portions of
MO. In short, while precipitation is not out of the question for
the coming weekend and next week, the large scale pattern mainly
supports dry conditions and very warm temperatures for the fore-
seeable future.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2018

VFR conditions are likely across eastern KS and far western MO.
There is a chance for light fog to form here but at the moment
feel the lowest visibility will be in the 4 to 5 mile range.
Better chances for thicker fog will be in central MO and southern
to eastern MO and in eastern IA. Only high level clouds will
affect the area and high pressure will help keep winds light.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...CDB


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