Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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044
FXUS63 KEAX 291718
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1118 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 359 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2020

While the weather across the immediate forecast area today will
remain mostly quiet there are still some interesting features that
will influence how the day proceeds. The most prominent feature is a
closed off mid level low, which is currently moving eastward through
the southern plains, generally along the OK/TX Red River border. The
low is forming some scattered moderate precipitation across areas
just to the east and north of this low, however, the northern
extent of this precipitation should remain a bit south of the
forecast area. Some of the far southern zones, including Linn Co
(KS) and Bates/Henry Co (MO) may see some very light precipitation
move in from the south, however the lowest 5-10 kft of the
atmosphere is rather dry, so not expecting more than a sprinkle of
precipitation to reach the surface. As this mid level low moves
eastward into the Mississippi River Valley it will pull any
low/mid level cloud cover with it, ultimately yielding mostly
clear skies by Sunday evening. Perhaps more notably affecting the
area will be a surface cold front, which is currently located
generally along the I-80 corridor in central and eastern Nebraska.
This cold front will drop into far northwest Missouri in the mid
morning hours and continue to press S/SE into central Missouri by
the early afternoon. The cold air advection associated with the
incoming surface ridge will negate the diurnal heating effects, so
expect only a marginal "warm up" through the day, with
temperatures likely only rising 5-10 degrees before steady or
cooling temperatures later today. This frontal boundary will
likely not bring with it any precipitation, however there could be
some low clouds associated with the immediate passage of the
front. Winds will also pick up from the N/NW right behind the
front, which will yield wind gusts approaching 30-40 mph at times
today.

By Monday the closed low will come into phase with the northern
stream, causing a fairly long wave trough over the upper midwest and
Great Lakes region. This will keep northwest flow aloft for the
beginning of the upcoming week, which should keep temperatures on
the chilly side through at least mid week. As that large trough
slowly departs eastward there will be some short term ridging in the
mid levels for Tuesday, in advance of the next highly amplified
trough for Wed/Thursday. This trough may be a bit of a player with
respect to some light precipitation, possibly in the form of light
snow. Synoptic scale models disagree with the system`s ability to
produce any snow, with the ECMWF being consistently more aggressive
with the precipitation production for Wed through late Wednesday,
with the GFS being significantly more bearish. Current forecast
package introduces some very small chances for accumulating
precipitation across the area for the middle to latter part of the
week, but those chances may increase with upcoming forecast packages
should there be some better consensus within the models. One major
problem with the ability to produce precipitation will be the
moisture return, which will be so-so at best. Otherwise, it appears
the low level cold air will be in place for at least some snow
production should there be enough moisture. At any rate, this system
at this time does not appear to bring even low to medium impacts,
but of course it bears some watching as we approach that Thursday
timeframe.

The mid week trough will slowly meander eastward through the late
part of the week, but as mentioned earlier there should be some cold
air associated with it that will linger through the late part of the
week, into next weekend. There does not appear at this time to be
any day time high that reaches 50 degrees, so even despite the lack
of any real winter precipitation the next 5-7 days will feature
generally uncomfortable winter-ish conditions.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2020

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Gusty
north winds, 20 to 30 kts, will persist through the afternoon and
ceilings will clear toward the evening as a front continues to
push south of the regions airfields. North winds will relax
slightly through the overnight, becoming more northwest for the
remainder of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Kurtz



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