Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 182356
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
656 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 310 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2018

There are at least three potential rounds of storms to contend with
in the next 24 hours to 30 hours. With a mess of an upper level
pattern and subtle/marginal forcing, subsequent rounds of storms
could be dependent on how the previous round evolves and how quickly
the area recovers/destabilizes.

This Afternoon: Showers and storms are developing on the leading
edge/outflow of an MCS in eastern KS. There is a chance these
will hold together and move in extreme eastern KS and western MO
this afternoon. Forecast soundings show CIN building back around
sunset and with no notable forcing mechanism, it appears these
should diminish with loss of surface heating.

Tonight - Tomorrow Morning: Another MCS should develop in western KS
and OK and track east through the night. Models are in decent
agreement bringing this into eastern KS and western MO around
sunrise, give or take. Have expanded the chance PoPs that were
already in the forecast to account for this possibility. It looks
like this line may be in the decreasing stage by the time it makes
it into the forecast area but there could be a few strong wind
gusts still tomorrow morning as the storms move through.

Tomorrow Afternoon - Evening: This looks to be the most impactful of
the three rounds as it will have the best forcing, highest shear and
potentially the greatest CAPE to work with. Initially, given the
CAPE/shear combination, supercells would be possible. Very steep
lapse rates aloft suggest very large hail would be possible and
strongly curved hodographs suggest at least a small potential for
tornadoes. These should evolve into a severe line of storms that
tracks across northern MO. Forecast soundings ahead of the line
from various models show potential instability in the 2500 to 3500
J/kg range. 0-6km shear values of 40+ kts suggest a good potential
for organized updrafts and severe potential. 0-3km shear around 40
kts oriented southwest to northeast suggest potential severe QLCS
with possible mesovortices.

Sunday - Monday: A weakly forced environment will exist across the
area through this period of time. As a result, models don`t have the
best agreement. But there should be modest instability with minimal
capping and thus can`t rule out some daytime showers and storms,
especially for Sunday.

Tuesday - Thursday: Upper level ridging should build across the area
but the overall pattern is very messy across the CONUS. There may be
isolated to scattered showers and storms each day. There could also
be thunderstorm clusters move into the area as well. This kind of
pattern is why on any given day in the summer, there`s a 30% chance
for storms. There is nothing notable to key on, just and unstable
air mass.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 656 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2018

VFR conditions will start the evening, but early morning
thunderstorms are expected be in the vicinity of the KS/MO border
between 09Z and 16Z, with the TEMPO highlighting the main morning
show. Focus then turns towards Saturday evening as storms will
fire up in Kansas and move northeast into Missouri. This might
spare the KC terminals the worst of the storms; not so much for
the KSTJ terminal.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Cutter


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