Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
771 FXUS64 KFWD 090001 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 701 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms will continue through the evening, and additional thunderstorm activity is expected on Wednesday. Some storms may be on the stronger side, with the risk for gusty winds and small hail. - Thursday and Friday should clear out before low rain chances (15-30%) return to the region this weekend. - Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected, with highs through the beginning of next week to remain in the low and mid 90s. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1246 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025/ /Through Tomorrow Night/ ...Today and Tonight... A weak upper-level disturbance will slowly drift south across the Great Plains over the course of today. Morning convection in the Central Plains associated with this disturbance has generated a southward moving outflow boundary, serving as a focus point for additional convective development which is already underway this afternoon across portions of Oklahoma and Arkansas. Further to the south across portions of Southeast and Eastern Texas, scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms continue to develop and slowly expand to the north. While these storms should remain east of I-35 and south of I-20, there is much more uncertainty with convective evolution from storms approaching the region from the north. With minimal CIN across Northern TX (sourced from ACARS soundings at DFW and DAL), and weak, yet broad forcing for ascent from the disturbance to the north, it seems probable that at least isolated thunderstorms should develop across much of North Texas within the next couple of hours. In general, the higher rain chances (40-50%) will be east of US-75/I-45 across Northeast Texas. Lower rain chances (15-30%) extend west into the Big Country. These storms should by and large remain below severe limits, but an isolated instance or two of a severe wind gust cannot be ruled out, particularly if a more organized cluster of storms or MCS can move into the region from Oklahoma later this evening. Any potential for severe winds gusts will largely remain north of I-20 and east of US-281. It is also important to note, even though the above scenario is the general consensus amongst short term guidance, there is still substantial uncertainty in exact location, intensity, and evolution of storms today. The vast majority of ongoing storms this evening will dissipate with the loss of diurnal heating. However, there is a very low chance (10-15%) of a stray shower or thunderstorm lingering through the overnight hours as slightly stronger forcing for ascent arrives from the north. ...Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night... The Central Great Plains trough is expected to continue its slow progression to the south, with its axis roughly along or just north of the Red River Valley by tomorrow afternoon. Diurnally driven convection will once again develop across much of North and Central Texas by the afternoon hours, with highest precipitation chances (40-50%) across East Texas, diminishing with westward extent (15-30% west of I-35). Storms are not expected to be severe, but as with any summer-time convection, may produce frequent lightning, gusty winds, and small hail. Due to the weak synoptic forcing in place across the region, storms may linger longer into the late evening/early overnight hours compared to storms today. As such, the vast majority of activity should still diminish by midnight tomorrow night. Darrah && .LONG TERM... /Issued 1246 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025/ /Thursday through Monday/ Synoptic scale subsidence will build into the region by the end of the week, suppressing diurnally driven convection Thursday and Friday afternoons. Though ridging will build out west, near or slightly below normal heights, and high boundary layer humidity will keep afternoon temperatures near, or slightly below normal (in the low to mid 90s). Peak heat indices will range from 95 to 105 each afternoon. Though medium range guidance trends closer to near-normal temperatures for the weekend, rain chances (20-40%) will also return across the region. As such, there is still substantial uncertainty with high temperatures this weekend onward, which will largely be dependent on how convection develops and evolves during the afternoon and evening hours. Darrah && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00z TAFs/ Scattered thunderstorms continue to impact most of D10 this evening, with numerous outflow boundary interactions igniting new thunderstorms near the Metroplex TAF sites. Expect 1-2 more hours of TSRA impacts at North Texas airports (especially DFW and DAL) with periods of heavy rain and erratic gusty winds of 30-40 kts. Activity will dissipate around or after sunset. Variable winds will recover to southerly following the dissipation of convection, and south flow will prevail into Wednesday with VFR skies. Additional chances for showers and storms exist tomorrow afternoon, and VCSH has been introduced to all airports towards the end of the valid period. -Stalley && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 92 75 94 76 / 20 30 20 5 0 Waco 74 88 73 91 74 / 20 40 20 5 0 Paris 72 90 72 93 75 / 30 40 20 10 0 Denton 74 93 73 95 75 / 10 30 20 0 0 McKinney 74 92 74 94 76 / 30 30 20 5 0 Dallas 76 94 75 96 77 / 20 30 20 5 0 Terrell 74 91 73 93 74 / 30 50 20 10 0 Corsicana 75 91 75 94 76 / 30 50 20 10 0 Temple 73 88 72 91 74 / 20 40 20 5 0 Mineral Wells 73 93 72 95 74 / 10 20 20 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$