


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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813 FXUS63 KGID 071811 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 111 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Most areas will remain storm free through the daytime hours today with a chance for severe weather returning this evening and continuing into the overnight hours. Wind gusts of 60 to 70 MPH will be the greatest concern, although initial storms early in the evening could produce hail to the size of golf balls and even an isolated tornado. - Heavy rainfall will accompany the storms tonight, with a quick 1 to 3 inches of rainfall possible with the strongest storms. While localized flooding across areas with already saturated soils will be possible, widespread flooding is not expected to be an issue due to the progressive nature of the anticipated storms. - Predominantly dry weather is anticipated for Tuesday and Wednesday, with off an on again - mainly small - chances for storms continuing into next weekend. The next best shot for more widespread precip will be Thursday evening into Friday morning when a more pronounced upper level disturbance is forecast to cross the local area. - Temperatures continue to look fairly typical through the period, fluctuating a few degrees either side of normal each day. Normal highs are generally in the upper 80s and normal lows are generally in the mid to upper 60s this time of year. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 This Evening/Tonight... Newer models (RRFS/REFS) are less aggressive with coverage and intensity of evening thunderstorms and also keep focus of evening thunderstorms more across our northern and northeastern forecast area. Overall feeling is that most thunderstorms across our forecast area should hold off until late evening, generally after 7 or 8 PM and most likely after 10 PM. Most models indicate two main areas of focus for thunderstorm development. The first area will be to our west across northeastern Colorado with strong afternoon heating and steeper lapse rates. These western thunderstorms will track east, but are expected to eventually become outflow dominate and die off by late evening as they possibly enter our western forecast area. A second area of thunderstorms will develop over north central and northeastern Nebraska and track southeast through the late evening/overnight hours, with our northern and northeastern zones being favored for catching some of these thunderstorms. Models diverge on the southwestern extent of these thunderstorms, but confidence in seeing thunderstorms quickly decreases as you head south of the Tri- Cities. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 A line of weak showers and isolated thunderstorms developed across mainly northern portions of the forecast overnight. Models initially did not pick up on this activity, but the last couple runs of the HRRR have partially captured it...and subsequently quickly kill it off by daybreak. Given the environment and only very subtle forcing and lack of a low level jet, this seems reasonable, and expect a storm free start to the day for the vast majority of the local area. While there will be some clouds to start the day, mostly sunny conditions should return by midday...as the next upper level disturbance helps to enhance convection ongoing across northeastern Wyoming as it rapidly propagates southeast through the daytime hours. This complex of storms is expected to organize as it tracks towards the local area, eventually posing a severe weather threat later in the day. With steep lapse rates, modest shear and plenty of CAPE, storms will initially present both a wind and hail threat, which should transition to mainly a wind threat as it crosses the local area later this evening as a more organized area of storms. While heavy rainfall will also be a possibility, the progressive nature of this complex should limit flooding potential across the area. Behind tonights complex of storms, mostly dry weather will return for the middle of the week with modest ridging aloft promoting warmer and dry conditions both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. The upper ridge will then weaken late Wednesday, allowing the return of additional thunderstorm chances through the end of the forecast period. At this point, the next best shot for more widespread thunderstorm activity looks to be Thursday evening into Friday as a stronger upper level disturbance coming from the west helps trigger another complex of storms as it crosses the local area. Still a little early to discuss severe potential for Thursday evening, but given the available energy and forcing from the wave, would not be surprised to see at least some stronger storms return to the area Thursday evening. Thereafter...continued weak westerly flow aloft should keep temperatures near climo into next weekend with additional... mainly small...off and on chances for thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Have adjusted the timing for possible thunderstorms in the Tri- Cities by pushing the thunderstorm threat back to generally after 9 PM, with the main focus being between 9 PM - 4 AM. We could briefly see MVFR ceilings or visibility within any thunderstorms, but otherwise expect VFR conditions. The wind will remain out of the southeast today and then become light and generally easterly this evening, but will be rather variable in and around thunderstorms, remaining variable after thunderstorm passage into Tuesday morning. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Wesely DISCUSSION...Rossi AVIATION...Wesely