Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 232047
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
347 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Pretty nice afternoon ongoing across the area today, with mostly
sunny skies outside of the CU field affecting northern/western
areas. In the upper levels, the region sits under shortwave
ridging, set up between low pressure spinning over the MO/IL/KY
border area and another system moving through the northern/central
Rockies. At the surface, winds across the central/eastern
portions of the CWA remain on the light at time variable side,
with SSE winds across the west, as a ridge axis continues sliding
off to the east. No big surprises with temperatures this
afternoon, with 3 PM obs ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Precipitation chances ramp up later tonight in the west, mainly
along/west of HWY 183. Kept this evening dry, with PoPs pushing
into the western CWA after midnight (esp after 09Z). Models
showing the initial push of precip coming as larger scale lift is
increasing ahead of the main upper low (which at 12Z tomorrow is
over western SD) as well as a smaller area of enhanced mid level
forcing out ahead of the main low. Kept thunder mention out of the
forecast with models showing what little instability there is
being west of the CWA, but wouldn`t be too shocked if there were a
few lightning strikes in our west.

As we get into tomorrow, precipitation chances continue to spread
east, and have CWA-wide PoPs even going through tomorrow
evening/overnight. Models aren`t in too bad of agreement with the
track of the main upper low, moving over the western SD/NE border
around 18Z and into the Sandhills region by evening. This isn`t
exactly a quick mover, by 12Z Wed, models have the located
anywhere from right in the heart of our CWA to the western NE/KS
border. Have 20-50% chances continuing through the first half of
the day Wed, with the highest PoPs south of a Silver Creek-
Phillipsburg line. 12Z run of models showing that it might late
into the afternoon before activity fully clears the CWA to the
south. By the time it`s all said and done, could be a few spots
with over 0.5" of accumulation, but current forecast has most
locations between 0.25"-0.5".

Accompanying this upper level system will be a surface cold front,
bringing cooler temps for both Tues and Wed. Winds this
evening/tonight will become light/variable once again, and by 12Z
tomorrow, the front is just starting to move into western portions
of the CWA. Winds are expected to switch to the NW CWA-wide by
mid/late morning, and while it`s not a strong front, breezy
conditions are expected, esp across the western half. Winds turn
more northerly for tom night/Wed, speeds around 10-15 MPH.
Confidence in highs both Tue/Wed isn`t the highest, with plenty of
cloud cover expected and precipitation around. Have generally 50s
for most locations, through eastern areas could climb into the
lower 60s tomorrow before the precip moves in.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

The forecast for the latter half of the work weekend and into the
weekend is currently dry, but there is some uncertainty in that,
mainly late in the Thursday/evening. Models are in good agreement
showing shortwave upper level ridging in the wake of this next
system and ahead of another trough axis that will be sliding SSE
out of central Canada and across the northern/central Plains.
There`s really not time to get a good feed of moisture back into
the area, and models have backed off on QPF or kept best chances
to our northeast. Once that trough swings through, ridging moves
east onto the Plains through the weekend, ahead of a stronger
upper low moving into northern CA. One question comes Sunday-ish,
as some differences between models arise with the potential for
another system moving in. At this point would rather keep it dry
unless there is more model support.

Expecting a breezy/windy day on Thursday, accompanying another
frontal boundary swinging through with that upper trough axis.
Potential is there for a breezy weekend as well.

Temperature-wise, Thursday is the coolest of the long term period,
with highs forecast in the lower-mid 60s. Have a warming trend
then on through the weekend, with CWA-wide 70s in there for the
weekend. Some models suggest that those highs may need to be
bumped up. Will see how things trend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

VFR conditions are forecast for the entire TAF period at KGRI, and
for the majority of the period at KEAR. While ceilings will be
lowering later tonight/tomorrow with the arrival of an upper level
disturbance, MVFR ceilings don`t look to affect KEAR until mid-
late morning, when the better chances for rain also arrive. KGRI
precip chances increase right after this TAF period ends.
Currently light/variable winds turn more SSE this afternoon,
speeds topping out around 10 MPH, becoming light/variable again
tonight. Toward the end of the period, winds will turn
northwesterly as a cold front swings through.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ADP



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