Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 191119

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
619 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Cool and wet weather today...

A complex of showers and thunderstorms which originated in
eastern CO/western KS reached our area late Friday evening and the
coverage of storms increased overnight aided by a 40-50kt low
level jet. Severe storms Friday evening remained just outside our
cwa and have weakened during the predawn hours. More impressive
with the convection are the rainfall amounts with some areas
seeing rainfall rates of a half inch an hour. Phillipsburg has
tallied nearly 3" of rain so far, Holdrege around 1.50", with KUEX
radar showing the heaviest rain so far along and south of
Arapahoe and Holdrege, NE to the Phillipsburg/Glade/Stockton areas
in KS.

Models are pretty consistent with periodic showers and thunderstorms
continuing today/tonight as an upper low pressure system lifts
out of Colorado and slowly crosses Nebraska and a cold front
advances south through our region. Models are trending farther
south with the cold front today, aligning the boundary along our
southeast zones early this afternoon and clearing our cwa by
evening. The farther south position limits/narrows the severe
weather threat for our area today, and no surprise that the SPC
Day 1 outlook has shifted farther southeast with the slight risk
barely clipping our southeast zones. Of more concern is the
impacts of the prolonged rain and areas with significant rainfall
totals. Will not receive the official rain totals until morning,
however additional rainfall on saturated ground may lead to areas
of lowland flooding and rises in rivers and creeks. So far the
North Fork of the Solomon River near Glade, KS has seen decent
rises, but is still below flood stage at this time. A flood watch
remains in effect for northwest portions of area today, where
heavy rain fell Friday and another round of rain is moving in.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

To round out the weekend, Sunday remains cloudy and cool in the post
frontal airmass with remnant rain showers remaining possible under
the influence of a weakening upper trough across the plains. Flow
becomes more zonal Monday with dry weather and seasonal temperatures

The pattern becomes more active again Monday night into much of next
week as a deepening upper low along the west coast in CA moves
farther inland toward Nevada. Flow aloft transitions southwest
across the plains early in the week ahead of this system, and in
the warm air advection regime, chances for storms return. Models
are pretty consistent with the western CONUS upper low lifting
through the central and northern Rockies during the middle part of
the week, maintaining fairly active southwest flow our across
area til around Friday. While each day will not be a rain out,
intermittent chances for storms exist.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Sunday)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Rain showers and isolated thunder continue to gradually lift north
this morning around a low pressure system moving into Nebraska.
Intermittent rounds of showers and possibly a thunderstorm will
continue through today as the system advances. Cloud heights will
be variable this morning but are expected to lower to IFR and
LIFR with time today/tonight. Look for winds to remain from a
northerly direction behind a cold front but may be variable in
presence of thunderstorms.


NE...Flood Watch through this evening for NEZ039-046-060-061.



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