178
FXUS63 KGID 301124
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
624 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a chance (20-50%) for showers and thunderstorms over
  northeastern parts of the area today. Most locations will
  stay dry, and the main severe threat is well to our southeast.

- The potential for severe weather increases on Wednesday. A few
  storms could produce marginally severe hail during the morning
  and early afternoon, but the main severe threat is from late
  afternoon through the overnight over the southeastern half of
  the area. All severe threats (large hail, damaging wind,
  tornadoes, and localized flooding) are possible in this area.

- Thursday will be breezy and mostly dry. But the pattern
  remains active through the weekend, with more chances for
  rain/t-storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Very isolated showers and weak thunderstorms have developed
over northeastern portions of the forecast area this morning.
Continued moisture advection ahead of the upper shortwave and
surface cold front should allow this spotty activity to continue,
mainly north and east of the tri-cities through the morning and
into the early afternoon. This should be largely non-severe, but
abundant shear and returning instability (albeit limited) could
result in a few strong updrafts capable of producing marginally
severe hail.

The cold front pushes across the area late this morning through
the mid afternoon. All indications from the CAMs are that
convection will initiation along this front WELL to our
southeast during the late afternoon and evening, with dry
conditions continuing through the overnight hours.

On Wednesday, warm air advection returns to the area. Exact
details hinge on how far north the warm front returns into the
area, but regardless, there will be multiple opportunities for
strong to severe storms. We could already see drizzle/showers
and a few elevated thunderstorms develop north of the warm
front Wednesday morning, potentially producing marginally severe
hail.

By late afternoon, if the warm front indeed moves to near the
KS/NE border (like the 06Z HRRR indicates), the environment to
the in our north-central Kansas would be favorable for supercell
development with all severe hazards possible (including
tornadoes). On the other hand, the NAMnest keeps the front
further south. In either case, additional thunderstorms are
expected to develop into the overnight hours as a strong LLJ
develops. This will initially be a hail threat, with an
increasing threat for wind as one or more line segments moves
west to east across the area during the late overnight.

Breezy northwest winds will advect drier air into the area on
Thursday, and temperatures could fall into the 30s for portions
of the area Thursday night.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the area Friday
into Friday night as another shortwave moves through the area.
Details remain uncertain, but instability (and therefore the
severe potential) appears to be limited.

Most of the weekend will probably be dry (especially Saturday),
but with the active pattern, we cannot completely "rule out"
rain or thunderstorms at any point. Early next week, chances
for thunderstorms increase again as global ensembles show the
potential for a more organized upper low to move through the
central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible late this
morning into the afternoon but should remain to the east of
GRI/EAR.

Winds turn to the northwest behind a cold front today.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels