Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 131719

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1219 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

...Models Have Come Into Much Better Agreement Thu night-Fri and
it Now Looks Like Much-Needed Rain will Fall but Precip Type will
be a Complication...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Hazardous Weather Potential: None.

Aloft: Highly-amplified cyclonic NW flow was over the Plns with a
minor trof extending from MO-NE-WY. This trof was associated with
the core of chilly air over the rgn. As it moves thru this eve...
that will signal the departure of the cool air. NW flow will
remain thru tomorrow as the Wrn ridge conts E in response to
height falls over the Wrn USA.

Surface: Strong high pres was over SD and encompassed the Plns.
This high will cont sliding SSE tonight and settle over the Gulf
Coast tomorrow. Meanwhile...a Canadian cool front will rapidly
drop into the Nrn Plns tonight...but is not fcst to move thru
until Wed eve.

This Afternoon: Sunny with near normal chill...but minimal wind.
49F should do it for the Tri-Cities...with slightly cooler temps
N and E and slightly warmer temps S and W.

More later this afternoon...

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday daytime through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Expecting a dry and warmer start to the long term period/
Wednesday. At 12Z Wed, models are in pretty good agreement showing
well amplified north-northwesterly flow in place aloft across the
region, thanks to low pressure spinning over the northeastern
CONUS and ridging extending northward through the Rockies. Main
change aloft through Wednesday night is the ridge axis being
pushed further east into the Central Plains, as a disturbance
moves in from the West Coast. At the surface, the day starts out
with high pressure centered roughly over the OK/AR border area,
with weak troughing over the High Plains. Through the day, winds
across the CWA are expected to remain SSWrly, with the higher
speeds over far southern areas, where the stronger winds aloft
will reside. Speeds in the 15- 20 MPH range will be possible,
lighter the further north you go, thanks to a cool front that will
be sinking south with time. Expecting highs to be notably warmer
compared to today, with forecast temps reaching the mid-upper 60s.
Will continue to mention near critical fire wx conditions in far
south, where the better combo of RH/winds may line up.

The forecast for Thursday remains dry, with lower confidence in
temperatures. Could end up with quite a gradient in highs from
north- south across the CWA, thanks to a frontal boundary moving
into/strengthening in the area. Between that southward sinking
cool front to our north, and deepening sfc low pressure over
eastern CO during the day, expecting winds to turn to the east for
much of, if not all of, the CWA during the day. Models are in
pretty good agreement with our NE counties being influenced by
those easterlies (which is not going to do any favors for warm
temperatures), as well as more cloud cover, but across our KS
counties, it`s a little more uncertain if their winds will be
easterly or keep at least somewhat of a southerly component.
Currently have a 20-ish degree gradient in the forecast for highs,
with mid 50s north to mid 70s south.

During the day on Thursday, upper level energy associated with
the main system over the West Coast continues sliding east, and
brings us our next chance for precipitation Thursday evening
through Friday evening. Thursday evening, models showing lift
increasing ahead of this disturbance, as well as with an
increasing southerly LLJ...developing precipitation along/north of
the sfc frontal boundary expected to be set up over central/
northern KS. Models do continue to show a narrow area of at least
a couple hundred j/kg of instability nosing into S-SE portions of
the CWA, and kept the thunder mention going in the forecast. Could
be the first rumbles of spring thunder for at least chunk of the
CWA, we`ll see how models trend with the areal coverage of
instability/thunder potential.

As Thursday night passes and goes into Friday, models aren`t in
too bad of agreement showing this disturbance becoming better
organized and developing into a closed low, but vary some with the
exact location/timing...ranging from the western NE/KS border,
the eastern NE/KS border, to the southern KS/CO border area at 12Z
Friday. Through the day on Friday and into Friday evening, this
system will continue its eastward trek, with continued differences
in the exact path and timing. While the main precipitation type
during the day Friday is rain, some temp profile difference need
to be ironed out in the models...mainly with how quickly colder
air/switch to snow would move in from the northwest. That could
end up occurring quicker than what is currently in the forecast.
Highs for Friday continue to trend down, with the current forecast
showing mid 40s north to near 60 south...and wouldn`t be
surprised to continue to see that trend, especially across the
northern half of the CWA.

Shortwave upper level ridging in between this system and the next
looks to keep Saturday through at least part of Sunday dry (at
least for now). Another system affecting more the Central/Northern
Plains looks to move in late in the day Sunday and linger into
the start of the work week...but plenty of things to sort out
timing/location- wise. Have 50s for highs Sat, 50s/60s Sun, before
falling back into the 40s/50s for Mon.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Significant Weather: None

This Afternoon: VFR. No clds at or below (AOB) 10K ft. Lgt/vrbl
winds. Confidence: High

Tonight: VFR. No clds AOB 10K ft. Lgt/vrbl winds become SW 10 kts
or less. Confidence: High

Wed thru 18Z: VFR SKC. SW winds 7-12 kts. Confidence: High




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