297
FXUS63 KGID 140844
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
344 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An overall pleasant day expected across the area today, with
  winds turning the southeast around 10-15 MPH, and highs in the
  mid 70-near 80.

- Thunderstorms developing over the High Plains mid-late
  afternoon today will push east, potentially reaching western
  portions of the forecast area by late this afternoon. Better
  chances look to be through the evening hours. There will be
  the potential for some storms to be strong/severe, and areas
  west of HWY 281 are included in the SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk
  area. Large hail/damaging winds would be the primary threats.

- Wednesday afternoon and evening will bring another chance for
  some strong to severe thunderstorms, mainly for areas along
  and south east of the Tri-Cities and into north central
  Kansas. This area is included in the SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk
  area...large hail/damaging winds would again be the primary
  threats.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Currently through tonight...

Quiet conditions reign across the forecast area early this
morning, with overall clear skies. Looking aloft, upper air
and satellite data show northern flow in place across the
Central Plains, as we sit between a low pressure system sliding
east across MO and weak ridging extending through portions of
the Desert SW and High Plains. At the surface, a ridge axis
extends south through the Plains from high pressure centered
over central Canada, and has kept winds light/variable
overnight. With the light winds, wouldn`t be surprised to see
some spotty light fog through the early morning morning hours,
but widespread significant reductions in visibility are
currently not expected.

Today is still looking to be an overall pleasant day. Models are
in good agreement showing that upper level shortwave ridging
sliding east across there region today, while a disturbance is
moving onto the High Plains. The surface ridge axis currently
through the region pushes off to our east, while an area of low
pressure/trough axis settles in over the High Plains...switching
the current light/variable winds to the southeast. Speeds
remain light today, topping out around 10-15 MPH. A few more
clouds will be working their way in from the west, especially
this afternoon, but afternoon highs still expected to reach into
the mid 70s to near 80.

That surface frontal boundary to our west will be the focus for
thunderstorms firing mid-late afternoon, with models showing
that upper level wave moving in and steep lower level lapse
rates developing. Can`t rule out activity making enough eastward
progress to clip far western portions of the forecast area by
00Z, but models are in pretty good agreement showing better
chances after 00Z. Forecast has pretty widespread 40-50 percent
chances of storms mid- evening on through the overnight
hours...am concerned they are too broad, more recent models have
been showing activity being fairly spotty in nature. The upper
level forcing isn`t overly strong, and instability wanes with
time. During the late afternoon-mid evening hours, can`t rule
out a few of the storms being on the strong-severe side, mainly
in our western areas, where models show an axis of MUCAPE values
around 1000 j/kg and deeper layer shear around 30-35 kts. SPC
Day 1 Marginal Risk area includes the forecast area west of HWY
281...large hail/damaging winds would be the primary threat.

Rest of the work week...

Looking at Wednesday, confidence in how things evolve is not
overly high, especially with preciptiation chances. Models
vary quite a bit with just how much activity lingers into the
morning hours...some have at least scattered showers/storms
around, others are basically dry. Activity could
continue/redevelop through the morning/midday hours as lift
increases ahead of the next upper level wave/trough axis sliding
east through western NE/Dakotas...with the potential for
additional development mid-late afternoon along another surface
frontal boundary that is pushed south through the forecast area.
One question lies with the exact placement of that surface
front...is it across the NW third of the forecast area, or
closer to/if not southeast of the Tri-Cities when storms fire.
There will again be the potential for these afternoon/evening
storms to be strong- severe, with models showing similar deeper
layer shear around 35kts but a bit better instability. The
central and southeastern thirds of the forecast area have been
included in the SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk area...with hail/wind
again being the primary hazards. Outside of precipitation
chances, expecting partly-mostly cloudy skies, with variable
wind direction due to lingering/passing surface features.
Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the low-mid 70s.

Wednesday night into Thursday, the overall chances for storms
will be tapering off from NW to SE with time, but confidence
in the exact timing of things ending isn`t high. Models show the
upper level wave being on the slow side to push east, so
lingering 20-30 percent chances for showers/storms continue into
the daytime hours on Thursday (best chances across the SE half
of the area). Overall dry conditions look to return for Thursday
night into Friday. Not looking at any big swings in
temperatures either way to end the work week, with mid 70s
expected for Thursday and low 80s forecast for Friday.

This weekend and on...

As we get into the upcoming weekend, models showing the start of
the weekend being dry, thanks to upper level ridging pushing
east through the central CONUS. A series of disturbances break
down that ridging and bring more zonal/progressive upper level
flow to the region...and periodic precipitation chances return
to the forecast Saturday evening through Monday. Confidence in
the timing/path of any of these disturbances is not high, so
precipitation chances remain low in the 20-30 percent range.

For temperatures, Saturday is currently forecast to be the
overall warmest day of the entire 7-day forecast...with mid-
upper 80s possible. With the potential for upper level
disturbance then passing through, highs for Sun-Mon are a touch
cooler in the mid 70s-low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period, and outside of
chances increasing for scattered showers/storms late in the
period, dry conditions are expected. Light/variable winds look
to continue the rest of tonight and into the morning on Tuesday,
then turning south-southeasterly for the remainder of the
period. Speeds look to top out around 10 MPH. In the final few
hours of the period, scattered activity is expected to be
shifting in from the west...at this time just kept as a VCTS
mention.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP