Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 150612
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
112 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 111 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

The Winter Weather Advisory previously in effect CWA-wide through
10 PM was allowed to expire on time, as the vast majority of
falling snow had ended and a very gradual decrease in wind speeds
was likely resulting in an improvement in blowing snow issues,
even in rural areas.

UPDATE Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Replace the remaining Blizzard Warning in the north/northeast with
Winter Weather Advisory, and extended the Winter Weather Advisory
until 10 pm CDT for all counties, as several small bands remain,
producing visibility of 1/2 to 1 mile with the 35 to 50 mph wind
gusts. Wind gusts will gradually wind down as will the snow
bands/showers as the upper system moves east.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 419 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

The center of the upper low continues to track east across
northeastern Kansas. As it departs, snow chances will move east with
it.

Intensity of snow is decreasing, but still some lower visibility
showing up recently in our north and northeast from blowing snow and
some snow showers containing heavier bursts of snow, mainly east.
Our winter weather products go until 7 pm, but will have to evaluate
if any remaining snowfall or blowing snow would necessitate that at
least winter weather advisories should be extended later. I may need
to keep at least flurries going for much of the night and may need
to add that in the near future.

Continue to favor CONSMOS for wind tonight and even bumped that
solution up a few mph.

Sunday highs look quite cold for this time of year. Wind will still
be brisk, but not as strong as today. Still got a significant
pressure gradient and lapse rates to transport stronger wind to the
surface, and wind gusts of 25 to 35 will probably be common. I like
CONSRAW for highs which is generally lower than guidance by a good 5
to 10 degrees. This translates to highs in the lower to mid 30s for
our Nebraska side, and maybe around 40 in our north central Kansas
area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 419 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

I prefer CONSRAW for Monday highs as well, which keeps the tri-
cities in the upper 40s for highs. Overall, the next week looks
milder than this weekend, but still significantly below normal on
most days. We should be getting into the lower to mid 60s for the
tri-cities, but most days we will be well below that, except for
perhaps Tuesday before another wave shows up. We might have a quick
crack at thunder, but this looks focused more north and qpf amounts
do not add up to much. Looks like a cool down behind the wave for
Wednesday.

Another shortwave trough arrives for Friday/Friday night, and we
could have enough instability, especially in our south, to give us
some thunder. We will need to pay attention to this system Friday as
the negative tilt could mean some severe possibility, but still a
bit early to speculate a whole lot. Snow is a possibility on the
back side of the wave for Friday night into Saturday, but judging by
the lower than expected snow amounts with this weekend, I will not
likely get too excited over snow potential, despite the copious
moisture that may be available.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday)
Issued at 111 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

General overview:
While confidence is quite high in VFR visibility and
precipitation-free conditions (save for perhaps a few rogue
flurries mainly at KGRI), ceiling is a bit of a challenge, as
confidence in the timing of the return from prevailing MVFR to
prevailing VFR is somewhat low. Wind-wise, it will remain quite
breezy from the north-northwest through the first 18 hours or so
(albeit not nearly as windy as Saturday was), with sustained
speeds commonly 15-20kt/gusts 24-28kt, but speeds will steadily
decrease to under 10kt late in the period Sunday evening. Read on
for more details regarding ceiling trends...

Ceiling:
Both KEAR/KGRI are starting off with MVFR ceiling, and eventually
a return to VFR should occur during the period, but exactly when
is in serious question. For one, some models/guidance depict low
clouds gradually clearing/scattering from west-to-east and not
returning, while others actually show MVFR holding firm and/or
retreating briefly and then returning. As a very "best guess" am
currently showing KEAR returning to VFR by 12Z and remaining
there, but KGRI not going consistently VFR until hours later at
21Z. Again, this is a low-confidence situation for MVFR versus
VFR, but at least confidence is rather high that any ceiling will
be no lower than MVFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 431 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Various cold temperature records for April 15th-16th are
likely/possible at Grand Island and Hastings airports, our two
primary climate records sites. The details follow:

Coldest low temperature for April 15th (Sunday morning):
- Grand Island: Record is 15 in 1905...forecast is 21
- Hastings: Record is 23 in 2014...forecast is 20

Coldest high temperature for April 15th (Sunday afternoon):
- Grand Island: Record is 32 in 2000...forecast is 35
- Hastings: Record is 32 in 2000...forecast is 36

Coldest low temperature for April 16th (Monday morning):
- Grand Island: Record is 20 in 1904...forecast is 16
- Hastings: Record is 20 in 1951...forecast is 17

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Pfannkuch
CLIMATE...Pfannkuch



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