Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 251720
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1220 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 453 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Water vapor and upper level analysis indicate a building ridge
along the Rockies with a trof moving onshore the CA coast. Another
trof will located over south central Canada with southward
trailing influence into Central Plains. Satellite and radar trends
show last night`s KS MCS weakening rapidly with a remnant MCV
invof of MHK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 453 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Main forecast concern in the short term is whether or not to
include low end chances for a few pop-up thunderstorms late this
aftn-eve

Today: Lingering showers across the far SE CWA should weaken by
around 12z, leaving dry conditions for the rest of the morning.
Temps will warm quickly today as there should be plenty of
sunshine and S/W component to wind, albeit light. Have going highs
in the low to mid 90s, which is about 20 degrees above normal.
See climate section for more details on this late May warmth.
Luckily the "feels like" temp wont be much different than the air
temp due to dew points largely in the 50s.

As far as precip chances today, struggled with whether to include
some slight chc POPs in the S and far NW. Some of the hi-res
convective allowing models are fairly robust in developing aftn
tstms (esp 00Z HRW ARW/NMMB), but latest SREF has backed off on
probabilities of measurable precip (~10%) and previously
aggressive 00Z NAM/NAM Nest have also backed off on latest 06Z
run. Did not have much faith in 00Z NAM anyway as it initialized
quite poorly across KS. Forecast soundings show very deep
mixing/steep lapse rates and little to no CIN by 22Z, but cant
find any forcing for tstms as sfc convergence is very weak and the
primary shortwave will be well N/NE of the area. Also, seasonably
low atmospheric moisture content will allow for plenty of dry air
entrainment into any updrafts. So while I cant completely rule
out a tstm popping up 22Z-02Z in a summer-like pattern, just
could not find sufficient forcing to justify POPs at this time.
Will be something the day shift needs to watch, esp. given we are
heading into a holiday weekend.

Tonight: Assuming nothing develops locally late this aftn, tonight
should be mainly clr, dry and warm with lows in the low to mid
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 453 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

The upcoming Memorial Day Weekend (and "unofficial start to
summer") will feel like a mid to late summer weekend with highs in
the 90s and periodic shwr/tstm chances.

The trof currently near the West Coast will progress eastward
toward the Great Basin on Sat and lead to substantial height rises
locally as the upper level ridge amplifies across central
portions of the CONUS. As the trof shifts eastward the mid-upper
level flow will become swrly and allow for several weak
disturbances to pinwheel around the parent trof. Several days of
moisture advection on S/SE winds will lead to humid and unstable
conditions for the second half of the weekend and continuing into
much of next week. All of this will set the stage for increasing
shwr/tstm potential beginning as early as Sun eve, but esp. for
Mon into Tue. Some of this may be strong to severe given the
amount of instability expected. Only a slight decrease in temps
may occur for the middle of next week with overall a warm pattern
likely to continue.

Saturday: H85 temps of 24-27C, plentiful sunshine, deep mixing
and developing srly sfc flow should allow temps to rise into the
mid to upper 90s. Similar to Fri., heat indices should be near the
actual temps.

Sunday: Hot temps continue as many of the factors from Sat. are
present once again. May see tstms arrive from the W during the eve
or overnight, but the LLJ remains strongest W of the area with no
real veering/convergence forecast for our CWA, so IF anything
survives this far E it should be weakening.

Monday: The parent trof will be a bit closer to the area by Mon
and with a potentially stronger wave nearby should see higher tstm
chances. Timing would favor the late aftn or eve for development,
with continued activity possible overnight. Strong instability
suggests a non-zero chance for severe tstms, but deep layer shear
may be lacking (20-30kts) which would help temper the severe
threat at least somewhat.

Tuesday and beyond: A cold front looks to pass through the area
on Tue. which will lead to continued tstm chances as well as a
brief/slight cooldown. Similar to Mon. some strong to severe tstms
cant be ruled out depending on the timing of the front. Wed.
appears dry at this time and warmer as a ridge builds into the
region. The next shortwave trof and chc for tstms may arrive as
early as Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Saturday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

VFR conditions expected to prevail. Light winds will be present
throughout the period. Winds will be west to northwest today,
variable overnight and become southerly through the day Saturday.
Skies will be mostly clear with some mid clouds developing during
the late afternoon hours.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 755 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

..Warmest final week of May on record at Grand Island/Hastings?..

Although it`s obviously not a "sure thing" yet, our latest forecast
for May 25-31 indicates that both Grand Island and Hastings (our
two primary long-term climate data sites) will experience the
overall-hottest last week of May on record! Listed below is the
projected May 25-31 average temperature (average of the daily
highs/lows) for this year, and the current warmest on record for
that week:

- Grand Island airport (records date back 122 years to 1896)

1) 2018...76.9 degrees (PROJECTED from current forecast!)
2) 1926...75.9 degrees
   1921...75.9 degrees
4) 2014...75.6 degrees
5) 1934...75.3 degrees

- Hastings airport (records include 109 years dating to 1907)

1) 2018...77.0 degrees (PROJECTED from current forecast!)
2) 1926...75.1 degrees
3) 2014...74.6 degrees
4) 1913...74.5 degrees
5) 2006...73.7 degrees

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thies
SHORT TERM...Thies
LONG TERM...Thies
AVIATION...Billings Wright
CLIMATE...Pfannkuch


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