Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 252029
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
329 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

The main forecast concern in the short term is 1. a very small
chance for thunderstorms late this afternoon/evening, and 2. Heat
into the weekend.

1. The latest high resolution guidance indicates the chance for
very scattered showers and thunderstorms along and west of Highway
281 into the evening hours. As of 3:15pm there is just the
slightest of CU development and a few small showers to the west.
Have added a slight chance for isolated thunderstorms to the
forecast. While instability is plentiful, shear is lacking, so
expect any activity to be driven by the heat of the day,
diminishing by mid/late evening.

2. Upper level ridging will be building in from the west and
moving across the central Plains over the weekend. Temperatures
will soar. Highs are expected in the mid to upper 90s Saturday and
Sunday. Sunday`s forecast temps are even near or exceeding current
records (See Climate Section for more details for Saturday and
Sunday). Southerly flow at the surface will also return and be
breezy across the the area for the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

The main concern through the long term forecast continues to be
heat, with a few chances for thunderstorms. An upper trough will
continue to sit across the western half of the CONUS slowly moving
towards and across the central Plains. This upper wave will be the
main driver for any precipitation, with the best chances across
the High Plains Sunday night into Monday and then for
central/southern Nebraska Monday night into Tuesday.

Temperatures for the work week are still expected to be above
normal. Highs on Memorial Day are currently forecast to be
slightly less than the weekend`s highs, but still expecting at
least 90s. This could be impacted by cloud cover, or lack there-
of, so we could see the temperature increase over the next few
forecasts. Tuesday is cooler, back into the 80s with the chances
for precipitation. The upper level pattern breaks down some into
mid-week with another disturbance moving across the region on
Thursday. This will bring another chance for precipitation before
upper level ridging builds back in for the end of the work-week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Saturday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

VFR conditions expected to prevail. Light winds will be present
throughout the period. Winds will be west to northwest today,
variable overnight and become southerly through the day Saturday.
Skies will be mostly clear with some mid clouds developing during
the late afternoon hours.


&&


.CLIMATE...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

..Record High Temperatures possible for Memorial Day Weekend..

Record High Temperatures for May 26th
Grand Island....100 degrees in 2012 (Forecasting 96 degrees)
Hastings........100 degrees in 2012 (Forecasting 95 degrees)

Record High Temperatures for May 27th
Grand Island....97 degrees in 1912 (Forecasting 94 degrees)
Hastings........93 degrees in 2006, 1974, 1913 (Forecasting 94
degrees)


..Warmest final week of May on record at Grand Island/Hastings?..

Although it`s obviously not a "sure thing" yet, our latest forecast
for May 25-31 indicates that both Grand Island and Hastings (our
two primary long-term climate data sites) will experience the
overall-hottest last week of May on record! Listed below is the
projected May 25-31 average temperature (average of the daily
highs/lows) for this year, and the current warmest on record for
that week:

- Grand Island airport (records date back 122 years to 1896)

1) 2018...77.3 degrees (PROJECTED from current forecast!)
2) 1926...75.9 degrees
3) 1921...75.9 degrees
4) 2014...75.6 degrees
5) 1934...75.3 degrees

- Hastings airport (records include 109 years dating to 1907)

1) 2018...77.4 degrees (PROJECTED from current forecast!)
2) 1926...75.1 degrees
3) 2014...74.6 degrees
4) 1913...74.5 degrees
5) 2006...73.7 degrees

&&


.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Billings Wright
CLIMATE...Pfannkuch/Billings Wright



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