813
FXUS63 KGID 071811
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
111 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Most areas will remain storm free through the daytime hours
  today with a chance for severe weather returning this evening
  and continuing into the overnight hours. Wind gusts of 60 to
  70 MPH will be the greatest concern, although initial storms
  early in the evening could produce hail to the size of golf
  balls and even an isolated tornado.

- Heavy rainfall will accompany the storms tonight, with a quick
  1 to 3 inches of rainfall possible with the strongest storms.
  While localized flooding across areas with already saturated
  soils will be possible, widespread flooding is not expected to
  be an issue due to the progressive nature of the anticipated
  storms.

- Predominantly dry weather is anticipated for Tuesday and
  Wednesday, with off an on again - mainly small - chances for
  storms continuing into next weekend. The next best shot for
  more widespread precip will be Thursday evening into Friday
  morning when a more pronounced upper level disturbance is
  forecast to cross the local area.

- Temperatures continue to look fairly typical through the
  period, fluctuating a few degrees either side of normal each
  day. Normal highs are generally in the upper 80s and normal
  lows are generally in the mid to upper 60s this time of year.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

This Evening/Tonight...

Newer models (RRFS/REFS) are less aggressive with coverage and
intensity of evening thunderstorms and also keep focus of
evening thunderstorms more across our northern and northeastern
forecast area. Overall feeling is that most thunderstorms across
our forecast area should hold off until late evening, generally
after 7 or 8 PM and most likely after 10 PM. Most models
indicate two main areas of focus for thunderstorm development.
The first area will be to our west across northeastern Colorado
with strong afternoon heating and steeper lapse rates. These
western thunderstorms will track east, but are expected to
eventually become outflow dominate and die off by late evening
as they possibly enter our western forecast area. A second area
of thunderstorms will develop over north central and
northeastern Nebraska and track southeast through the late
evening/overnight hours, with our northern and northeastern
zones being favored for catching some of these thunderstorms.
Models diverge on the southwestern extent of these
thunderstorms, but confidence in seeing thunderstorms quickly
decreases as you head south of the Tri- Cities.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

A line of weak showers and isolated thunderstorms developed
across mainly northern portions of the forecast overnight.
Models initially did not pick up on this activity, but the last
couple runs of the HRRR have partially captured it...and
subsequently quickly kill it off by daybreak. Given the
environment and only very subtle forcing and lack of a low level
jet, this seems reasonable, and expect a storm free start to
the day for the vast majority of the local area.

While there will be some clouds to start the day, mostly sunny
conditions should return by midday...as the next upper level
disturbance helps to enhance convection ongoing across
northeastern Wyoming as it rapidly propagates southeast through
the daytime hours. This complex of storms is expected to
organize as it tracks towards the local area, eventually posing
a severe weather threat later in the day. With steep lapse
rates, modest shear and plenty of CAPE, storms will initially
present both a wind and hail threat, which should transition to
mainly a wind threat as it crosses the local area later this
evening as a more organized area of storms. While heavy rainfall
will also be a possibility, the progressive nature of this
complex should limit flooding potential across the area.

Behind tonights complex of storms, mostly dry weather will
return for the middle of the week with modest ridging aloft
promoting warmer and dry conditions both Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoons. The upper ridge will then weaken late Wednesday,
allowing the return of additional thunderstorm chances through
the end of the forecast period. At this point, the next best
shot for more widespread thunderstorm activity looks to be
Thursday evening into Friday as a stronger upper level
disturbance coming from the west helps trigger another complex
of storms as it crosses the local area. Still a little early to
discuss severe potential for Thursday evening, but given the
available energy and forcing from the wave, would not be
surprised to see at least some stronger storms return to the
area Thursday evening.

Thereafter...continued weak westerly flow aloft should keep
temperatures near climo into next weekend with additional...
mainly small...off and on chances for thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Have adjusted the timing for possible thunderstorms in the Tri-
Cities by pushing the thunderstorm threat back to generally
after 9 PM, with the main focus being between 9 PM - 4 AM. We
could briefly see MVFR ceilings or visibility within any
thunderstorms, but otherwise expect VFR conditions. The wind
will remain out of the southeast today and then become light and
generally easterly this evening, but will be rather variable in
and around thunderstorms, remaining variable after thunderstorm
passage into Tuesday morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wesely
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Wesely