Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 162337
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
637 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Hazardous Weather Potential: None.

Aloft: A large shortwave ridge was over the Plains with a deep
trof along the W coast and a potent shortwave trof at its base.
The ridge will shift E of the rgn tomorrow as the Wrn trof presses
inland. The shortwave trof will become negatively tiled over CO
by 00Z/Wed.

Surface: High pres was over the Sandhills. This high will depart
to the E tonight. Meanwhile...a cold front was making its way thru
the Wrn USA. A warm front will form near the KS/OK border
tonight. Lee cyclogenesis will occur tomorrow over CO as the cold
front approaches. As this low ejects into Wrn KS...the warm front
will lift N but remain just S of the CWA.

Rest of this afternoon: M/sunny and cool. Highs will be about 15F
below normal.

Tonight: Increasing clds. Low stratus should form N of the warm
front and some light fog should also develop. Confidence is low in
the extent of the fog and modifications may be needed to better
reflect this potential. Near normal lows.

Tue: Lots of clds as the area will be N of the warm front. This
will hold temps down. Lowered highs from the prvs GID fcst and may
not have gone low enough. Could easily see most of S-cntrl Neb
remaining not getting out of the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Hazardous Weather Potential:

- High winds possible Tue night
- Still windy Wed but not as strong
- Near critical fire wx conds Wed afternoon - SW counties

Aloft: The low that forms over IA Wed will depart with a ridge
moving thru Thu. The next low will move in off the Pac and slowly
meander thru the Desert SW Thu-Fri into the Srn Plns Sat. A
shortwave ridge should arrive by Sun.

Surface: The strong low over KS Tue night will head for the OH Vly
Wed with high pres building in thru Thu. Low pres will move well S
of the rgn into next wknd. GtLakes high pres should build in Sun-
Mon.

Winds: Have posted a High Wind Watch for our SW counties Tue night.
Am very concerned about high winds Tue night...and that is not
just in the watch area. The NAM/GFS/EC 850 mb winds are all 55-60
kt and CAA will probably keep mixing heights deeper than what fcst
soundings suggest. The watch is a conservative approach. The main
constraint at this time is that MOS winds aren`t there yet...and
the strongest CAA is SE of the CWA by the time the strongest winds
occur at 850 mb (around 12Z/Wed).

Even still...Wed will be a windy day wind NW 30G45 mph.

If RH`s end up a little lower in our SW counties in subsequent
fcsts...a Red Flag Warning will be required.

Temps: Continued below to much below normal. Sat will be the
coolest day.

Precip: Sct shwrs and a few tstms Tue night as the comma head
precip begins to develop N of the low. Accumulating snow has been
withdrawn from the fcst by the tool we use which uses a blended
thermal profiles...snow ratios and QPFs. However...an inch or two
could still occur on the back side of the precip shield as it
moves out (N of Hwy 92). This will be a quick-hitter. That snow
would really have to come down hard to accum over a short time
period.

The late week system will be a slow-mover which means we could see
multiple periods of precip potential (Thu night thru Sat night).
This is currently looking like primarily a rain event...but snow
is in the fcst and it is possible again...espcly in the nighttime
and morning hrs. The trend the last few days has been for this
low to drift further S than previously fcst. That means overall
less precip with the highest amts over our KS counties.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Mid and high clouds continue to stream across central Nebraska
this evening.

Later tonight into Tuesday morning, some lower stratus is expected
to develop...but the extent/height of this is still a bit
uncertain. RAP/HRRR/GFS show a relatively brief window for reduced
ceilings late tonight into early morning, but the NAM is quite a
bit more aggressive and long-lived. This forecast takes the
"middle ground" with a longer window of MVFR ceilings, likely
rising to VFR by early afternoon, at the latest.

Short-term models aren`t showing much fog potential tonight, so
I`ve removed the BR mention from the TAFS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Watch from Tuesday evening through late Tuesday night
     for NEZ082-083.

KS...High Wind Watch from Tuesday evening through late Tuesday night
     for KSZ005-006-017-018.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Mangels


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