341
FXUS63 KGID 072354
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
654 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There could be a few isolated thunderstorms this afternoon
  early evening and then more widespread thunderstorms are
  possible (50-80% Neb / 40% Kansas) late this evening into
  tonight.

- Primary severe weather threat through the overnight hours will
  be gusty winds of 60-70 mph, but initially large hail (up to
  ping pong balls) will also be possible mainly through early
  evening.

- Heavy rainfall could also accompany the storms tonight, with
  a quick 1 to 3 inches of rainfall possible with the strongest
  storms. While localized flooding across areas with already
  saturated soils will be possible, widespread flooding is not
  expected to be an issue due to the progressive nature of the
  anticipated storms.

- Predominantly dry weather is anticipated for Tuesday and
  Wednesday, The next best shot for more widespread precip will
  be Thursday night (Neb) and Friday night (KS) when a more
  pronounced upper level disturbance is forecast to cross the
  local area.

- Temperatures continue to look fairly typical through the
  period, fluctuating a few degrees either side of normal each
  day. Normal highs are generally in the upper 80s and normal
  lows are generally in the mid to upper 60s this time of year.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025


The Remainder of this Afternoon...

We`ve surpassed convective temperatures across the forecast area
and have developed a nice cumulus field and even two isolated
thunderstorms as of 245 PM. We may continue to see a few
isolated heat of the day thunderstorms later this afternoon and
early evening prior to the more focused thunderstorms moving
into the area from both the west and north late this
evening/overnight.


This Evening/Tonight...

Newer models (RRFS/REFS) are less aggressive with coverage and
intensity of evening thunderstorms and also keep focus of
evening thunderstorms more across our northern and northeastern
forecast area (HRRR). Overall feeling is that the greater
coverage of thunderstorms will be later this evening and most
likely after 8 PM. Most models indicate two main areas of focus
for thunderstorm development. The first area will be to our
west across northeastern Colorado with strong afternoon heating
and steeper lapse rates. These western thunderstorms will track
east, but are expected to eventually become outflow dominate and
die off by late evening as they possibly enter our western
forecast area as they die out. A second area of thunderstorms
will develop over north central and northeastern Nebraska and
track southeast through the late evening/overnight hours, with
our northern and northeastern zones being favored for catching
some of these thunderstorms. Models diverge on the southwestern
extent of these thunderstorms, but confidence in seeing
thunderstorms quickly decreases as you head south of the Tri-
Cities.

Instability and shear profiles support severe thunderstorm
development with storm mode most likely multi-cell clusters. The
main severe weather threat will be strong winds, but can also
not rule out large hail earlier on while individual cells are a
little more discrete. Low level 0-1 KM shear values are rather
weak this afternoon early evening at around 10 KTS, thus the
tornado threat is low, but not zero if a storm can remain
isolated long enough.


Tuesday and Wednesday...

We dry out behind the current short wave and ahead of the next
one with highs near normal in the mid 80s to around 90.


Thursday through Friday Night...

The next short wave will move into the central plains bringing
another decent chance (40-60%) for thunderstorms to Nebraska
zones Thursday night and then shifting south into Kansas zones
(40-50%) Friday night.


Next Weekend...

There is still a lot of uncertainty but we may again be between
storm systems with just typical slight chances (20%) of
thunderstorms. Saturday may be a bit cooler (lower 80s) behind
the Friday short wave, but we will likely quickly warm back up
into the mid to upper 80s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 650 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Cluster of showers/storms impacting the KGRI area here at the
start of this TAF period, but not KEAR. This activity has
diminished over the last hour...the next main concern will be
with activity currently well off to our east, as well as over
portions of northern NE. There is the potential for this
activity to move into the area later this evening, with models
focusing mainly on the activity currently to our north...they
suggest the western activity will fade with eastward progress.
Winds this evening/tonight are on the lighter side, potentially
more variable in nature further into this
evening/overnight...before becoming more easterly during the
daytime hours on Tuesday. Currently have VFR conditions through
the period, though confidence is lower in that period later this
evening/tonight with the PROB30 group of thunderstorm chances.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...ADP