Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 240924

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
424 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Issued at 418 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

We are starting to see storms develop between Lexington
and Beaver City this morning and isolated to scattered convection
remains possible during the morning. This initial round of storms
have been pulse type (strengthen/weaken) and a strong to
marginally severe storm may occur providing a hail threat.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Focus for today is on the potential for thunderstorms and severe
weather as energy crosses the plains in southwest flow aloft as an
upper low lifts out of the northern Rockies. Models are not clear
cut on how convection will unfold, with indications of possible
development yet this morning, but so far storms have remained to
our north in northern Nebraska and to the south in OK/KS. With the
lack of development so far, generally expect most areas to stay
dry into the afternoon before storm chances increase toward evening.

Storms are expected to initiate by late afternoon and increase in
coverage this evening with the progressing upper wave and
associated surface trough moving east of the high plains. A
strengthening lowlevel jet will sustain convection after dark and
models indicate the potential for the development of a MCS across
western KS, reaching our southern zones late this evening/tonight.
The main storm hazards will be large hail of golf ball size and
damaging winds with timing of severe weather favoring 6 pm to
midnight, then convection winds down/moves out overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

The forecast dries out Friday and the heat turns on this weekend
under the influence of an upper ridge across the interior CONUS, in
between a closed upper low pressure system/trough to our west
over the Rockies and troughs near the Great Lakes and in the Gulf
of Mexico. It`ll be one of the warmest weekends we`ve seen in
quite some time, with highs in the 90s Friday through Sunday.

The upper ridge axis shifts east late Sunday into Monday/Memorial
Day as a western upper low lifts north through the Rockies. Flow
across the Central Plains transitions southwest and intermittent
chances for thunderstorms return Sunday evening and continue
through the middle of next week, while the upper system emerges
from the Rockies onto the Northern Plains. There are some model
differences on the strength of the system as it reaches the
plains next week the GFS maintaining a stronger closed low solution
than the ECMWF. Details of storms and severe weather threats will
be refined with time.

An overview of the Memorial Day weekend forecast features
primarily hot/dry weather with highs in or near the 90s and lows
in the 60s. Afternoon heat indices look to mirror ambient
temperatures each day. Thunderstorm chances return Sunday with
models favoring the evening/overnight time frame. Memorial
Day/Monday looks more unsettled at this time with either lingering
morning showers/storms and possible redevelopment during the day.

Temperatures drop a few degrees to the 80s for highs
Tuesday/Wednesday under the influence of the plains upper trough,
but models do not indicate any appreciable cooling until we get
into the first few days of June.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Friday)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

VFR is forecast for the TAF period. The LLJ will setup once again
tonight and looks strongest out west, so will put a mention of it
in the EAR TAF. Chance for TSRA overnight with LLJ, don`t have
high confidence that they will impact TAF sites so left out a
mention for now.




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