Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 150027

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
727 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Issued at 727 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Wind speeds have dropped to 10 mph or lower and relative humidity
values have increased and the Red Flag Warning has expired at 7pm.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Clear skies can be found across the entire area. Winds have
increased for much of the area and allowed temperatures to warm into
the 60s for most of the area this afternoon. There is a weak warm
front that is to the north of the forecast area this afternoon.

The main concern for the remainder of the afternoon and into the
early evening will be fire weather. Warm, dry conditions with
southwest winds will continue into the evening.

The warm front to the north will sag to the south during the night.
Winds should be fairly light and turn from the southwest toward the
east during the night.

On Thursday, the front becomes stationary across northern Kansas and
a surface low develops in western Kansas. An upper level low
developing in the Rockies will send the first wave of energy into
the area. At this time it appears to just bring in some additional
clouds. Temperatures will be a bit of a challenge. With the front in
northern Kansas, the temperatures will remain warm, but the east
winds across much of southern Nebraska will keep temperatures a
little cooler. There could be a pretty good gradient across the
forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Thursday night through Friday night there will be an upper level low
that swings through the forecast area. The surface low developing in
western Kansas moves east through the forecast area. There is a
pretty good chance for some precipitation during this timeframe.
That leads to additional questions. Thursday night there is MUCAPE
of around 500 j/kg and expect there could be a few thunderstorms
around. Expect Friday to remain rain as the low moves to the east.
The next question is when and how much cold air moves into the area
behind the upper low. Models have some differences, with the NAM
being the coldest. Most of the models have the precipitation moving
out of the area late Friday night and that is when most of the
colder air moves in. At this time only have a couple of hours where
there may be some mixed precipitation before it comes to an end.

Saturday and Saturday night should be dry as we are between systems
and there is a weak surface high across the area.

The next system is expected to affect the area Sunday through Monday
night. Models have many differences in location, timing and
therefore resulting weather during this time. Despite all of the
differences, there still looks to be some precipitation starting
Sunday afternoon. This should be rain across the area with the
temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s. The precipitation will
continue to spread across the area Sunday night as the low
approaches. The temperature cools off Sunday night and there should
be snow mixing with and changing to snow for late Sunday night then
change back to rain Monday morning. Most of the models start to move
precipitation out of the area late Monday afternoon into Monday

For Tuesday into Wednesday there will be northwest flow and a few
weak waves that move through the flow. It should be mainly dry but
some of the models bring small chances through the area. This period
will need to be watched as it gets closer.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the forecast. Mostly
clear skies through the overnight as winds become light overnight
and by morning will be easterly. Easterly winds will be gusty
though with gusts to 25kts possible in the afternoon. Upper level
clouds will increase during the day tomorrow as well, but are not
expected to impact flight conditions.


Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Relative humidity is fairly low across the entire forecast area this
afternoon. The lowest relative humidities are in the far south or
southeast part of the area. The winds have been the main concern for
the period. Winds have been very close for many locations this
afternoon. Expect winds to gradually let up later this afternoon and
as temperatures cool off the relative humidity will increase. At
this time do not expect that the Red Flag Warning will need to be




UPDATE...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Billings Wright
FIRE WEATHER...JCB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.