Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 222348

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
648 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Temperatures this afternoon have reached into the mid 80s to low
90s across the area. Tonight overnight lows in the mid 60s are
expected with a chance of showers and thunderstorms moving across
the region. The NAM and GFS and the higher-resolution RUC/HRRR
indicate the chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop this
evening in northwest/north central Kansas and track northeast
across the forecast area overnight exiting into north
central/northeast Nebraska by morning. Shear is not overwhelming,
but there is 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE for thunderstorms.

During the day Wednesday, some of the guidance indicates a chance
for showers and thunderstorms extending into the morning hours,
however, expect most of the day to be dry across the area.
Temperatures will be similar to today across the region with highs
in the mid to upper 80s.

The western half of the area remains in a SPC Marginal Risk for
Wednesday, but question how far any activity will make it and have
kept a nearly dry forecast. Feel best chance for thunderstorms
will be west of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

The main take away for this period is that it will be hot, well
above normal for this time of year. High temperatures through the
end of the weekend look to be in the upper 80s to low 90s as the
main upper trough stays out to the west and ridging sets in over
the central Plains.

The best chance for precipitation will be Thursday night into
Friday morning ahead of the warmest temperatures for the weekend.
A disturbance will approach the area during the day Thursday with
storms developing and an MCS moving across Nebraska through the
overnight hours.

The beginning of the work week cools down some (but not a lot) as
the upper low finally moves east far enough to impact the area.
There will be some additional chances for precipitation as this
low moves towards the area, but it is too early for details.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Significant weather: LLWS at both TAF sites tonight

Tonight: Diurnal CU field will dissipate within the next 1-2 hrs.
Expect LLWS to dvlp at EAR by around 06Z and GRI by around 07Z w/
strong SSWrly LLJ of 40-45kts expected. Think HRRR is overdone
with convection this eve and have kept TAFs dry as activity should
remain W of the terminals.

Wednesday: LLWS should weaken just after sunrise. Expect a CU
field to dvlp once again as convective temps are met near or just
after midday. Winds will become brzy out of the S as well, w/
gusts up to 24kts during the aftn.




SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
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