Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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312
FXUS63 KGID 250055
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
755 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 659 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Regarding evening-overnight storm chances:
Refreshed our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID) a little bit ago,
mainly in an "attempt" to highlight that the primary focus for
possible severe storms this evening should be within the southwest
quadrant of our coverage area (CWA).

Would normally hesitate getting too "cute" trying to pinpoint
areal details in this rather uncertain/murky pattern, but now that
we are within a few hours of potentially dealing with a few
severe storms (primary window of opportunity will be 7PM-
midnight), it appears via satellite/radar trends and also very
short term models such as the HRRR that our primary shot at severe
storms will hinge on whether or not the activity currently
blossoming just southwest of our CWA over northwest KS maintains
its intensity as it expands/evolves eastward. Like last night,
seasonably-weak deep layer shear averaging only 20-25kt will be a
limiting factor in more widespread/organized severe storms, but
with a corridor of healthy mixed-layer CAPE well into the
1000-2000 J/kg range in place primarily over our western zones for
several more hours, at least some marginally-severe multicell
storms are possible. Outside roughly the southwest quadrant of our
CWA, at least small (20-30 percent) storm chances/PoPs exist for
later tonight, but the odds of severe storms appear fairly low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Short term is a tough call. Numerical models point toward convection
erupting along a dry-line near the Kansas/Colorado border,
especially near where a surface low should develop in northwestern
Kansas. Convection has already developed along a boundary over the
Sandhills, but CIN is tamping down on these cells for the time
being this afternoon.

If convection develops, it will likely form into an MCS and head
east, being supported by an increasing low-level jet this evening,
with the best low-level convergence expected to be just southwest of
the CWA. I would expect damaging wind gusts and maybe up to golf
ball hail to be primary threats. Deep layer shear will be relatively
weak, but lapse rates could be at least moderate. There is a shot at
some severe weather, especially in north central Kansas where there
is a stronger signal near a surface low, but pretty convection may
very well pop up just about anywhere as a low-amplitude perturbation
moves by tonight and could be severe on the Nebraska side as well.
Primary time of focus will be between 6 or 7 pm and midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

The upper ridge will keep the heat on for the foreseeable weekend
with highs in the 90s. Still going with a dry forecast with
intermittent chances of showers/t-storms creeping back in Monday
night as the ridge axis shifts east. Highs for the rest of the
forecast will be well into the 80s/90s past the weekend,behind the
ridge axis.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

VFR ceiling/visibility is expected to prevail, with only fairly
limited passing mid-high clouds. There will be a LOW chance of
thunderstorm activity later this evening-tonight (probably most
favored 03-06Z), but with better thunderstorm potential likely to
focus 75+ miles south-southwest of both KGRI/KEAR, we cannot even
justify a generic "vicinity thunderstorm" (VCTS) at this time in
the TAFs. Wind-wise, aside from any possible thunderstorm
influences, surface winds are actually expected to be relatively
light through the period, with sustained speeds at-or-below 11kt
the vast majority of the time. Direction will transition from
southerly this evening to generally westerly during the latter
half of the period Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 755 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

..Warmest final week of May on record at Grand Island/Hastings?..

Although it`s obviously not a "sure thing" yet, our latest forecast
for May 25-31 indicates that both Grand Island and Hastings (our
two primary long-term climate data sites) will experience the
overall-hottest last week of May on record! Listed below is the
projected May 25-31 average temperature (average of the daily
highs/lows) for this year, and the current warmest on record for
that week:

- Grand Island airport (records date back 122 years to 1896)

1) 2018...76.9 degrees (PROJECTED from current forecast!)
2) 1926...75.9 degrees
   1921...75.9 degrees
4) 2014...75.6 degrees
5) 1934...75.3 degrees

- Hastings airport (records include 109 years dating to 1907)

1) 2018...77.0 degrees (PROJECTED from current forecast!)
2) 1926...75.1 degrees
3) 2014...74.6 degrees
4) 1913...74.5 degrees
5) 2006...73.7 degrees

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Pfannkuch
CLIMATE...Pfannkuch



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