Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 260733
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
332 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.UPDATE...The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM sections have been
updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 332 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

High pressure will keep it dry through Friday. Then, an upper wave
will bring a few showers to mainly northern sections Friday night.
After that, high pressure will again lead to dry weather until the
middle of next week, when a frontal system will bring a threat for
showers to the area.

Temperatures will be near normal until Saturday, when cooler
temperatures will filter in in the wake of a cold front. Then, look
for a big shift with above normal temperatures next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Today/
Issued at 332 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Temperatures and cloud cover will be the main focus today.

Goes 16 water vapor imagery was showing an upper low spinning over
Arkansas. Infrared imagery was showing mid and high clouds from just
north of the I-70 corridor and south. Meanwhile, areas further north
had clear skies light northerly winds and temperatures only in the
middle and upper 30s at 3 am. So, expect patchy frost over the
northern counties through around 9 am. Reissued a Special Weather
Statement to cover that. Otherwise, models in good agreement that
the Arkansas low will move across the Tennessee Valley today and the
showers should stay north of our forecast area. That said, will keep
some clouds in our southern two tiers with little cloud cover over
the rest of central Indiana.

Low level thermals and expected cloud cover support the near normal
blend highs in the middle 60s today.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Saturday night/
Issued at 332 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Shower timing and coverage along with temperatures will be the main
focus for the short term.

Models in good agreement that surface high pressure and limited
moisture will result in dry weather through Friday. However, models
also agree that a wave will rotate around a Great Lakes upper low
and over northern sections of central Indiana Friday night. Models
all have QPF over our northern counties as well. So, confidence is
moderate or better that at least areas north of Indianapolis will
see some showers Friday night. Blend 40 percent PoPs over our north
looks ok with lesser chances over the metro area. In addition, a
cold front will move through Friday night and bring cooler air in
for Saturday.

Blend temperatures look ok with near normal highs in the 60s on
Friday but well below normal temperatures on Saturday in the wake of
the cold front. Could even see a freeze Saturday night, especially
over our northern counties, as the surface high settles over the
area allowing for great radiational cooling potential. Headlines may
be needed if confidence remains high as Saturday night gets closer.



Models are close enough that the model blend initialization was
accepted for most items.

The upper low moving across the southern states will keep some
clouds across the area Thursday, mainly south.

A cold front will move through on Friday, but moisture will be quite
limited as the system to the south will have taken most of the
moisture with it. Will continue with a dry forecast during the day.

Friday night, an upper level system will move into the Great Lakes
region. The GFS is stronger than the rest of the models and spreads
rain well into central Indiana. Most other models are farther north
and weaker. However, the SREF does bring some rain chances into
northern areas. Thus, confidence is low in PoPs Friday night, and
will make no changes to the intialization`s low PoPs north then.

Colder air moves back in behind the system Saturday. Went a little
cooler than the initialization northeast given latest trends in the
models.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

High pressure over central Indiana will make for dry weather through
much of the long term. Temperatures will slowly increase each day.
Late Tuesday night the next frontal system will approach and bring
chances for showers through Wednesday and beyond. At this point it
appears there may be a small amount of instability available on
Wednesday, but this far out would prefer to leave the thunder
mention out until it`s more consistent in the model runs. Sunday
night could see some sub-40 lows in the eastern counties, but
otherwise high confidence temperatures will run above normal through
the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 26/06Z TAFs/...
Issued at 1133 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

VFR through the period.

Surface high pressure will generally be in control throughout the
period. An upper level low passing to the south will provide a bit
of high cloud cover through portions of the period, but this will
be of little consequence to operations.

Winds through the period will be northerly or variable and less
than 10KT.

No significant obstructions to visibility expected throughout the
period.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...Nield


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