Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 192318
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
718 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.UPDATE...

The Aviation section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

High pressure is expected across the area through the weekend. A low
pressure system may affect the area by the early to middle parts of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Residual lower cloud cover should continue to clear out of the
southern zones as the afternoon goes by. Dry weather expected
tonight as surface high pressure noses into the area from the north.

Low level thicknesses generally support the GFS MOS lows tonight.
Most areas expected to drop below freezing for a time late tonight
into early Friday morning. No changes to freeze headlines planned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Will continue with a dry forecast during this period as high
pressure remains over the Great Lakes. An upper low is expected to
drift through the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast region by late
in the weekend. Some of the ensembles suggest a threat for rain may
make it into the southwest zones by Sunday afternoon, but so far
these solutions are in the minority. Will monitor the trends with
respect to this.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS temperature
guidance for the next couple of days may be a bit on the warm side,
but overall the guidance looks reasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

The slow transition to more sustained spring weather will continue
through the extended as two separate upper level systems provide
chances for rain through the first half of the week.

The cutoff upper low tracking through the southern Plains over the
weekend will track into the Tennessee Valley by early next week
before being picked up by an amplifying northern stream trough
aloft coming out of the Canadian Prairies. This will result in the
energy aloft being pulled further north into the region and likely
offer a better albeit low threat for showers Monday and Monday
night across much of the forecast area. The northern stream trough
will amplify further as it dives southeast Tuesday and Wednesday
with yet another upper low tracking into the area. This feature is
likely to provide the best threat for more widespread rainfall by
midweek.

The influx of more clouds and threats for rain through the first
half of the workweek will keep temperatures below normal but not
significantly so. Highs should generally range from the upper 50s
to mid 60s which will only be about 5-10 degrees behind the
averages for late April.

Beyond this system...drier weather is set to return for late next
week with growing confidence in a more substantial warming trend
as quasizonal flow aloft develops in the 7-14 day period. While
April has been a chilly month for the region...the light at the
tunnel appears to finally be on the horizon.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 20/00Z TAFs/...
Issued at 718 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

VFR through the period.

Skies will be mostly clear and winds 10KT or less through the
period with no significant obstructions to visibility under the
influence of high pressure.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for
INZ045>048-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...Nield



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