Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 170502

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1202 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

A couple of small scale upper level disturbances: 1) Well
pronounced mcv over ne OK will drift ese and for the most part
convection with this system will stay near or just south of our
border (best chances in the near term are the far sw corner of
MO). Bears some watching with the HRRR keeping persistent weak
convection along the MO/AR border tonight. 2) Over far se NEB
drifting to the southeast moving into central and east central MO
Thu. This may be more of a player for our weather for Thu during
the peak heating part of the day afternoon/evening with the
chances for scattered showers/thunderstorms favoring the eastern

In the meantime for the the rest of today, some isolated pulse
convection will be possible but given the relatively low
pwats/moisture aloft we are not expecting severe storms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

Friday: The shortwave over MO Thu will exit off to the east with
weak 500mb height rises through the day. Can`t rule out some
isolated convection given the instability, but the best chance for
any convection will likely be over the far sw cwfa where overall
moisture will be higher with pwats just under 1.5 inches.

Saturday-Sunday: The upper level shortwave ridge will shift east
of the area but guidance is having trouble resolving small scale
features and the placement of a sfc cold front over/near the
area. The ECMWF moves a sfc front through Sat night/early Sunday
while the GFS holds this front back to the west. In general the
pattern favors an uptick in rain chances either way, but don`t
have a lot confidence in timing/placement of convection.

Monday-Wednesday: The upper ridge is suppressed to the south with
modest westerlies aloft. The GFS is far more bullish with precip
versus the ECMWF with more moisture in place. In general, our late
Spring type pattern looks to continue.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

Scattered convection associated with a couple of weak shortwaves
will continue over the area during the overnight. Most of the time
and area will be in VFR with light wind. Within the convection,
brief period of MVFR will be possible.




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