Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 200904
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
304 AM MDT Wed Oct 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High temperatures will trend warmer during the latter half of the
week reaching a few to 11 degrees above normal Friday, and as much as
15 degrees above normal across parts of the east on Saturday. Winds
will be relatively light until this weekend when they will become
breezy along and east of the central mountain chain. A storm system
will bring a chance for rain showers and mountain snow showers to
the area along and west of the central mountain chain Monday night
and Tuesday, as well as cooler temperatures and potentially strong
winds areawide Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND THURSDAY)...
Tranquil weather conditions are in store thru Thursday as very dry,
quasi-zonal flow spreads across NM. A weak back door cold front that
moved into eastern NM overnight will trend temps 5-10F cooler today,
while central and western areas warm a few more degrees. Low temps
will remain chilly tonight with strong radiational cooling in place.
Thursday will be even warmer with westerly downslope flow returning
to the eastern plains.

Guyer

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A low amplitude ridge of high pressure will continue crossing
during the latter half of the work week with dry weather and above
normal temperatures. Highs will peak from a few to 11 degrees above
normal Friday, then up to 15 degrees above normal over eastern areas
Saturday when a few near record high temperatures will be possible.
Winds will generally be light until this weekend, when southwest
flow aloft will strengthen as a dry upper level trough crosses the
central and southern Rockies and a surface low develops over
southeast CO. Southwest surface wind gusts may reach up to 35 mph
across northeast and east central areas Saturday afternoon, then up
to 40 mph along and east of the central mountain chain Sunday when
fire weather concerns with develop.

In between weather systems, winds now look to weaken some on Monday
while remaining gusty in the afternoon. The potential exists for
strong winds to develop on Tuesday as a deeper upper level trough
carves its way through the western US and a potentially deep surface
low forms over eastern CO. The storm system is forecast to spread
clouds with rain showers and mountain snow showers over the area
along and west of the central mountain chain Monday night and
Tuesday, so the strongest winds should occur east of the central
mountain chain Tuesday afternoon.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry conditions will persist over the area thru the weekend.
Winds will be mostly light thru Friday with poor to fair ventilation
in most areas. West to southwest winds will increase by the weekend
as a storm system approaches from the west. Vent rates will improve
Saturday and Sunday. Winds will strengthen even more by Monday with
increasing moisture and warm temps. The next storm system will try
to move across NM by Tuesday with cooler temps, strong winds, and
perhaps some rain and snow showers across the north and west.

Guyer

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR all terminals the next 24 hrs with dry zonal flow across NM. A
weak back door cold front moving south thru eastern NM tonight will
bring a northerly wind shift to KTCC and KROW. Winds Wednesday will
be lighter than previous days with lcl gusts to near 20kt along east
facing slopes.

Guyer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  65  35  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  62  27  66  29 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  62  35  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  65  28  69  32 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  64  28  68  32 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  67  28  70  31 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  68  33  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  68  38  72  40 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  66  34  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  72  33  76  37 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  77  38  80  45 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  57  27  60  28 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  61  40  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  64  37  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  59  29  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  56  23  60  28 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  56  16  60  22 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  63  23  67  27 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  64  32  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  67  31  71  34 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  63  38  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  67  34  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  69  45  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  71  42  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  72  36  76  41 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  70  42  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  72  36  75  40 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  71  38  75  40 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  71  31  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  71  39  75  41 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  72  30  75  37 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  68  41  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  70  41  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  75  41  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  64  40  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  66  39  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  68  33  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  69  26  73  34 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  65  36  69  38 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  66  37  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  67  38  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  73  45  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  69  42  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  64  32  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  68  28  73  32 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  69  27  74  31 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  68  34  71  36 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  66  38  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  65  33  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  74  36  79  39 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  74  38  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  74  40  81  43 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  76  42  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  78  40  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  76  40  81  45 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  82  45  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  77  44  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  76  42  78  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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