540
FXUS65 KABQ 131153 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
553 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 547 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Showers and storms are likely each day through Monday, with
  coverage peaking on Sunday. A few storms may become severe over
  eastern areas today, over central areas Sunday, and in the east
  again Monday.

- There is a moderate risk of flash flooding below the Ruidoso
  area burn scars each day through Monday. Elsewhere, there is a
  low risk of localized flash flooding in eastern New Mexico
  today, along the central mountain chain Sunday, then along and
  east of the central mountain chain again Monday.

- Hot, dry, and gusty weather will return Tuesday and Wednesday
  with an increasing risk of rapid fire spread, especially central
  and west on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 1223 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

An elongated ridge of high pressure over the Gulf Coast has
steered subtropical moisture northward over NM, so daily rounds of
showers and thunderstorms will return to many locations today
through Monday. The greatest coverage of precip looks to occur on
Sunday and Sunday night, when an upper level trough tracking
southeastward over the central and southern Rockies will
invigorate convection over NM. Notorious northwest flow aloft is
expected to enhance shear enough for another round of severe
storms today, probably starting over northeast areas in the early
afternoon, then shifting focus over east central areas during the
late afternoon and early evening. A backdoor cold front tonight
will push all the way into the central valley with a gusty east
canyon wind by Sunday morning. Behind the front, it will probably
be too stable on the eastern plains for much in the way of storms
Sunday afternoon, but shear and instability profiles Sunday
afternoon and evening look favorable for at least a few strong to
severe storms along the central mountain chain and westward to the
east slopes of the western mountains, including the central
valley. Instability will increase Sunday night on the plains, when
storms are forecast as the upper trough crosses.

Hydro-wise, PWATs today and Sunday will vary from around 0.60"
along the western border of the forecast area to around 1.15"
along the eastern border. This will enable some locally heavy
rainfall from the central mountain chain eastward today, and again
along the central mountain chain Sunday, and potentially onto the
eastern plains Sunday night. On Monday somewhat drier air will
begin filtering over the forecast area from the northwest, while
Gulf moisture continues to pump into eastern areas from the
southeast, enabling another robust round of showers and
thunderstorms along and east of the continental divide, and
especially along and just east of the central mountain chain.
Ruidoso area residents will need to remain vigilant due to the
ongoing threat of flash flooding each afternoon today through
Monday, and into the early evening hours as well on Sunday due to
the upper trough tracking through the region. Meanwhile, some very
gusty virga showers and dry storms are expected mainly west of the
central mountain chain today, then along and west of the
continental divide Sunday and Monday.

With lower elevation readings mostly in the 90s, today`s high
temperatures will vary from near 30-year averages in the west to
as much as 9 degrees above average central and east. On Sunday,
readings will fall around 20-30 degrees in the east, around 10-15
degrees over central areas, and only a few degrees west of the
continental divide. Highs should then rebound a few to 11 degrees
in most locations on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1223 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Disturbances exiting the northern Rockies into the upper Great
Plains will steer much drier air over the forecast area from the
northwest both Tuesday and Wednesday shutting down convection,
except for perhaps a few light showers and storms over the
southern tier of mountains. Northwest flow will probably be gusty
enough for locally critical fire weather conditions along and west
of the northwest mountains Tuesday afternoon, then for more
widespread critical fire weather conditions over central and
western areas on Wednesday.  Northwest wind gusts should peak in
the 25-40 mph range on Wednesday due to stronger flow aloft and a
surface trough in the lee of the southern Rockies. The drier air
will also enable high temperatures to shoot near average to 8
degrees above average on Tuesday, then around 3-14 degrees above
average on Wednesday. Wednesday`s highs should generally vary
around 100-105 degrees across the eastern plains, with hundred
degree readings in parts of the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley
as well.

A weak ridge of high pressure is forecast to build northward over
NM during the latter half of the work week, while an upper level
trough tracks inland over the CA coast drawing enough subtropical
moisture northward over NM for thunderstorms to redevelop starting
Thursday. In addition, a somewhat moist backdoor cold front that
reaches as far west as the central mountain chain Wednesday night
will probably also increase thunderstorm chances starting
Thursday. Storms should become more widespread on Friday as the
upper trough makes more progress over the Desert Southwest
further enhancing southeasterly low-level return flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 547 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast from
the central mountain chain eastward, with isolated to scattered
activity over central and especially western NM this afternoon and
evening. Clusters and lines of storms should form in the east as
the afternoon progresses, where some storms will probably turn
severe by producing large hail and damaging winds. Along and west
of the central mountain chain, some gusty virga showers and dry
thunderstorms will produce little or no rain at the surface with
localized, brief, and erratic dry or mostly dry microburst wind
gusts potentially near 50 KT. Trusted high res models depict
thunderstorm gust fronts congealing from convection over the
western mountains and plowing east and northeastward through the
middle and lower Rio Grande Valley, and northwest plateau, with
wind gusts potentially around 40 KT during the late afternoon and
early evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1223 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Aside from erratic thunderstorm outflow, the main fire weather
concerns today through Monday will be dry lightning and gusty
virga showers. These will be most widespread west of the central
mountain chain today. Late this afternoon and early evening, high
res models depict broad thunderstorm gust fronts surging east and
northeastward into the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley, and
also over the northwest plateau, with wind gusts generally
reaching 35-45 mph. Dry storms on Sunday and Monday should mostly
be relegated along and west of the continental divide. After
locally critical fire weather conditions over northwest areas
Tuesday afternoon, coverage of critical fire weather conditions
looks to increase Wednesday over western areas and potentially as
far east as the Central Highlands. At this time, the greatest risk
for Red Flag conditions Wednesday looks to be over the North
Central Mountains and Northwest Plateau. Rain today through Monday
may mitigate the risk over the Central Highlands by Wednesday.
Gusty virga showers and mostly dry storms should then return to
northwest areas, west central areas, and the central valley again
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  94  61  91  58 /   0  10  10  20
Dulce...........................  90  49  84  44 /   5  10  70  20
Cuba............................  88  57  79  51 /   5  20  60  30
Gallup..........................  87  51  86  48 /  20  20  40  10
El Morro........................  85  54  82  51 /  20  20  40  20
Grants..........................  89  54  84  51 /  20  20  60  30
Quemado.........................  85  55  84  53 /  40  10  30  10
Magdalena.......................  88  62  81  57 /  20  10  70  40
Datil...........................  85  58  81  54 /  30  20  60  30
Reserve.........................  92  52  92  51 /  40  20  30  10
Glenwood........................  97  56  97  54 /  20  10  20  20
Chama...........................  83  47  76  43 /   5  20  80  30
Los Alamos......................  85  62  76  56 /  20  20  80  60
Pecos...........................  89  54  75  49 /  10  20  60  60
Cerro/Questa....................  84  53  75  50 /  20  30  90  50
Red River.......................  76  43  65  41 /  30  40  90  60
Angel Fire......................  80  43  68  39 /  20  50  90  70
Taos............................  87  53  78  48 /  20  20  90  50
Mora............................  86  51  69  48 /  30  50  80  60
Espanola........................  93  60  84  54 /  20  20  80  50
Santa Fe........................  88  61  77  55 /  10  20  60  60
Santa Fe Airport................  91  59  80  52 /  10  10  60  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  95  68  85  61 /  10  10  60  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  96  65  86  59 /  10  10  60  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  99  65  88  58 /  10  10  60  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  97  66  87  61 /  10  10  60  40
Belen...........................  98  63  89  57 /  10  10  50  40
Bernalillo......................  97  66  87  60 /  10  10  70  40
Bosque Farms....................  97  62  88  55 /  10  10  50  40
Corrales........................  98  66  88  60 /  10  10  70  40
Los Lunas.......................  98  63  88  57 /  10  10  50  40
Placitas........................  93  67  82  60 /  10  10  70  40
Rio Rancho......................  97  66  86  60 /  10  10  70  40
Socorro.........................  99  68  91  62 /  20  10  60  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  90  61  78  54 /  10  10  70  50
Tijeras.........................  91  60  80  54 /  10  10  60  50
Edgewood........................  93  58  78  51 /  10  10  50  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  94  54  78  48 /  10  10  40  50
Clines Corners..................  89  53  70  50 /  20  20  30  50
Mountainair.....................  93  56  78  51 /  10  10  40  50
Gran Quivira....................  92  57  77  52 /  10  10  30  50
Carrizozo.......................  94  66  83  60 /  10  20  50  60
Ruidoso.........................  87  59  73  55 /  30  20  70  70
Capulin.........................  86  45  64  44 /  20  60  50  50
Raton...........................  90  50  69  47 /  20  60  60  50
Springer........................  91  52  69  48 /  20  60  50  50
Las Vegas.......................  89  53  68  49 /  30  30  40  50
Clayton.........................  95  52  66  50 /  40  60  30  40
Roy.............................  90  52  66  49 /  30  50  40  40
Conchas.........................  97  56  71  53 /  50  40  30  30
Santa Rosa......................  94  55  69  53 /  40  30  30  40
Tucumcari.......................  99  56  71  54 /  50  50  30  30
Clovis..........................  97  59  72  55 /  10  50  40  50
Portales........................  98  59  74  55 /  10  50  40  60
Fort Sumner.....................  96  59  74  55 /  30  40  30  50
Roswell.........................  99  66  81  60 /  20  20  40  60
Picacho.........................  94  59  75  56 /  60  20  40  70
Elk.............................  93  58  77  55 /  60  20  60  70

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44