Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 010543 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1143 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. A dry
backdoor cold front will continue to advance west and south
overnight. The front has moved into the RGV with gusts of 30kt to
35kt at KABQ through the night. Gusts to 25kt out of the southeast
are possible at KSAF. Light to moderate southeast winds are forecast
for much of eastern and central NM during the the day Thursday while
winds remain light and variable across western NM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...308 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020...
.SYNOPSIS...
Mother nature must be giving us the cold shoulder because the
weather is about as quiet as a mouse. It will be dry each of the next
several days with relative humidity below 10 percent for much of New
Mexico. Temperatures will remain near to above normal for the next
few days with not nary a drop of rain to be found. A couple of weak
fronts will push into eastern New Mexico tonight into Thursday with
another on Saturday. These fronts should provide a brief cooldown for
those parts of the state before rebounding the next day. The fronts
could push as far south and west as the central Mountains and cause
some gusty east canyon winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
Smoke from wild fires in northern CO and southern WY will continue
to impact locations east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains this
evening.  A strong ridge of high pressure will remain entrenched
over the western US. A reinforcing shot of cooler air will push into
the state from the northeast tonight into Thursday morning causing
high temperatures east of the continental divide to fall a few to 14
degrees on Thursday from today`s readings. High temperatures on
Thursday will vary from 10 degrees above normal in the west to as
much as 6 degrees below normal in the east. Easterly gap winds will
be gusty in the ABQ and SAF areas tonight into Thursday morning.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
The extended forecast remains uneventful through the middle to end
of next week. Temperatures will remain near to above normal with very
little variation except for slightly cooler conditions Saturday and
Sunday for the eastern Highlands and Plains of New Mexico. A front
will push through Saturday. The front *may* reach the central
mountains and give Albuquerque and Santa Fe some gap winds Saturday
night into Sunday morning. Early next week temperatures push back
above normal by 5 to 10 degrees.

As far as precipitation chances go for the next 7 to say 10
days...well I will just quote Charlie Brown...I got a rock.

In all seriousness, the pattern does look to change in the far
extended range next Wednesday through Friday. The desiccating nemesis
of an upper level ridge finally breaks down with more west to
southwest flow developing. The jet stream becomes more zonal across
the northern half of the U.S. with a closed low off the coast of
California per the GFS. ECMWF shears out this low by the end of next
week but maintains west flow across the southern Rockies. However,
yet to be seen if this pattern change will bring any precip or lower
temperatures.

44/39

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather is forecast to continue for the next 7 days as a ridge
of high pressure persists over the western US. Temperatures will vary
from above to below normal in the east from day to day as back door
cold fronts travel into the area. One such front will push through
gaps in the central mountain chain with gusty east winds below
canyons opening into the central valley north of Highway 60 tonight
into Thursday morning. Peak gusts should reach near 35 mph in
Albuquerque tonight. Meanwhile, high temperatures up to 10 degrees
above normal will persist in the west each day through Tuesday.
Pockets of poor ventilation are expected Thursday, Sunday, and
Monday, becoming most widespread on Sunday.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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