Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 161137 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
637 AM CDT Wed May 16 2018

For the 12Z TAFs isolated thunderstorms will be possible across
parts of the forecast area late this afternoon into early this
evening. However, coverage is expected to be sparse and confidence
is low as to whether or not any TAF sites will be impacted by
storms. For the above reasons, have decided not to include tstms
at any of the terminal sites.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 525 AM CDT Wed May 16 2018/


Noteworthy items for this forecast package include multiple chances
for rain as the forecast is calling for thunderstorms most of the
periods in the next seven days. Severe weather Thursday could
potentially be interesting. Friday will be on the breezy side and
there could be the potential for fire weather, especially western
portions of the Panhandles; however, will hold off for now with fire
weather concerns given the rain chances.

For today, the atmosphere has worked itself over pretty well in the
wake of thunderstorms Tuesday evening as the surface low and
associated boundaries look to remain south of the forecast area
today, so convection may have a hard time initiating today in the
absence of any triggering mechanism. Isentropic flow appears to be
lacking as well. In the upper level, ridging will begin to
develop over the forecast area later today/tonight which should
inhibit further our chances for rain. High resolution models keep
going back and forth developing convection and its placement over
the area. Overall, confidence is pretty low for thunderstorms
today, but couldn`t completely rule it out with some dynamics in
place today and ample MUCAPE. Given the amount off instability
today, storms could potentially go strong to marginally severe

Looking ahead, at least in the short/near term, Thursday looks like
our next "best chance" for severe weather. A surface low is progged
to develop in eastern New Mexico and move into the Panhandles
Thursday afternoon. There will be a west-to-east warm front ahead of
the low and a south trailing dry line setting up west of Amarillo.
This in itself is interesting. Several models are depicting very
ample MUCAPE of 2000-4000 J/kg. It will be a high CAPE low shear
environment for these storms, but with the position of the surface
low and multiple boundaries all types of severe weather will be
possible. The tornado threat will be more around the "triple point",
but any supercells that form will be capable of producing all types
of severe weather. There are still factors working against us on
Thursday as the strong capping inversion aloft, less
favorable upper level dynamics with riding working in, and dry mid
to upper levels. However, it does appear there is at least a chance
for severe weather. Given the variables working against us, its not
a surprise SPC currently has only a marginal risk in the
convective outlook. This will be a day to watch in case things

Thereafter, multiple chances for rain exists in the forecast. Its
too early to say with much confidence the chances for severe
weather. That being said, Sunday looks like the next "interesting"
day for severe weather potential.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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