027
AXNT20 KNHC 260609
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Jun 26 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall over Central America/Western Caribbean:
Interaction between a couple of tropical waves and abundant
tropical moisture will continue to trigger sporadic deep
convection capable of producing heavy rain across the western
Caribbean and parts of central America through Friday. This will
increase the potential for flash flooding and mudslide, especially
in hilly terrains. In addition, divergent flow aloft will also
increases the chance of strong thunderstorms with dangerous
lightning and gusty winds. The heaviest rainfall is expected to
be near the east of coast of northern Nicaragua, Honduras,
Guatemala and Belize. Please refer to the local Weather Services
in the region for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 27W from just
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands southward, and moving west
around 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this
tropical wave.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 42W from 15N southward,
and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 10N to 12N between 41W and 45W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 77W from south of Jamaica
southward to near the Panama-Colombia border. It is moving west
at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is evident over northwestern Colombia.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W from the Gulf of
Honduras southward across Honduras, Nicaragua and western Costa
Rica into the East Pacific. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt.
Aided by divergent flow aloft, numerous heavy showers and
scattered strong thunderstorms are occurring near the coast of
Honduras and Nicaragua. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are found farther north near the Cayman Islands and
at the western Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Mauritania near Nouakchott, then reaches southwestward and to
09N29W. An ITCZ continues westward from 09N29W to 09N40W, then
southwestward from 09N43W to near the coastal border of French
Guiana and Suriname. Scattered to numerous heavy showers are
present south of the monsoon trough near the coast of Senegal and
Guiana. Scattered moderate convection is found near and up to 130
nm north of the ITCZ between 31W and 39W, and west of 52W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Two surface troughs are triggering widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms off the Florida west coast, and at the
southern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a 1020 mb high at the
northeastern Gulf is dominating the rest of the Gulf. Moderate to
fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are evident at the
eastern Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 2 ft seas
exist at the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest
of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the 1020 mb high will continue to dominate the
Gulf waters through early next week. Fresh to strong NE to E winds
will pulse each evening and night over the next several days
north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche
due to local effects induced by a thermal trough. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas can be expected
elsewhere through Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section about potential heavy
rainfall in the western Caribbean, and the Tropical Waves section
for convection in the entire Caribbean Sea. Strong with locally
near-gale E winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft dominate the south-
central basin. Fresh to strong E winds with 6 to 8 ft seas are
noted at the north-central basin. Light to gentle winds and seas
at 2 to 4 ft in moderate NE swell exist near Costa Rica and
Panama. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft
prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, including the Windward and
Mona Passages.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and lower pressure in the southwestern basin associated
with the East Pacific monsoon and the passage of tropical waves
will continue to support fresh to strong trades across most of the
central and southwestern basin through the end of the week. Winds
are expected to reach near-gale force off Colombia and in the
Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to rough seas are expected within
these winds. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas
will prevail. Winds will continue to increase and become strong
over the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night due to a tighter
pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and a broad area of
low pressure located over the eastern Pacific region, offshore of
Central America and Southern Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough near the Bahamas is joining forces with an
upper-level low over Florida to produce scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms off the Florida west coast, and over the
central and southeast Bahamas. Farther east, another upper-level
low near 28N55W is causing isolated thunderstorms north of 25N
between 56W and 60W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical
Waves sections at the beginning for additional convection in the
Atlantic Basin.

A subtropical ridge extending southwestward from a 1028 mb Azores
High across 31N43W to a 1021 mb Bermuda High is supporting gentle
winds with 3 to 5 ft seas north of 26N between 50W and the
Florida-southenr Georgia coast. Farther east, gentle to moderate
ENE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft are present north of 26N
between 35W and 50W. To the south from 08N to 26N between 35W and
the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds
with 6 to 8 ft seas are found. Gentle with locally moderate E to
SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail
for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated
ridge will prevail across the region through early next week,
supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas south
of 25N. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are
expected elsewhere. Otherwise, fresh to strong E winds will pulse
late in the afternoons and at night north of Hispaniola through
early next week.

$$

Chan