Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 171803

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
203 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 09.5N13W
to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from that position to 02N30W and
then extends to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered
showers and tstms are within 210 nm off the coast of Liberia,
Africa and within 195 nm either side of the monsoon trough and
ITCZ E of 35W.



A surface ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high E of the northern
Bahamas continue to provide gentle to moderate southeast winds,
with seas 3 to 4 ft over the western half of the basin and 1 to 3
ft in the eastern Gulf. Areas of sea fog and haze continue to be
reported in the northwest Gulf. The ridge will shift east Sun
night ahead of a cold front moving off the Texas coast offshore
Texas Mon evening. The front will extend from the Florida Big Bend
area to Tampico, Mexico Tue afternoon being reinforced by a push
of cold air that will move off the Texas coast earlier that day.
Fresh to strong winds and building seas over the northern Gulf
will be associated with this second push of cold air that will
merge with the leading front Tue evening. The merged front will
sweep southeast of the Gulf by early Wed. Winds and seas diminish
across the Gulf through late Wed as high pressure follows the
front across the northern Gulf.


The undersea volcano Kick `em Jenny, located north of Grenada
near 12.18N 61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of
Grenada advises mariners to observe a 5 km / 3.1 nm exclusion
zone around Kick `em Jenny. Please see for further

A ridge centered by a 1021 mb high east of the northern Bahamas
is supporting fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central
Caribbean, off the coast of northwestern Venezuela and
northeastern Colombia. The latest scatterometer pass, however,
show up to 30 kt winds along the coast of Colombia. Seas in this
area remain 8 to 10 ft per the latest observations. Moderate to
fresh trades are observed S of 17N over the eastern basin and remaining
central Caribbean waters. Gentle to moderate winds are noted
elsewhere with mostly 3 to 5 ft seas. Moderate trades are east of
the Leeward and Windward Islands with buoy data indicating 8 to 10
ft seas in northerly swell. Otherwise, moderate trades are in the
Gulf of Honduras according to latest scatterometer data.

The tail of a cold front is forecast to pass through the Yucatan
Channel Wednesday morning. High pressure building behind the
front in the Gulf of Mexico will allow fresh north-northeasterly winds
in the NW basin Wed night through Thursday morning.


A cold front extends from 30N57W to 28N63W to 30N70W accompanied
by few showers, fresh to strong W to NW winds and seas of 8 to 12
ft. A ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high just east of the northern
Bahamas dominates the waters W of 65W S of the front and
maintains generally light to gentle winds. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in
open waters primarily due to northerly swell. The cold front will
weaken as it shifts east to the central Atlc Sunday morning. W
winds will increase north of 28N late Sun as low pressure moves
off the Carolinas along with another cold front, shifting east of
the area through Mon morning. Southerly winds will increase off
northeast Florida and north of the Bahamas Mon evening, then
increasing further to near gale force north of 27N with 8 to 12 ft
seas by Tue night as a stronger low pressure system moves off the
Carolina coast. The remnants of a former stationary front are
analyzed as a surface trough that extends from 30N48W to 25N58W to
north-central Hispaniola coast. Scattered showers are within 90 nm
either side of the boundary N of 24N. Isolated showers are in the
remainder southern portion of the trough. Over the eastern
Atlantic, 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 28N27W, and this
is maintaining gentle flow over the subtropics and moderate to
fresh flow in the deep tropics.

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