Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 240515

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
115 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to
01N30W, to the Equator along 41W, and to the Equator along 46W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 02N to 04N
between 18W and 27W, and from 01N to 03N between 37W and 41W.
isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 07N southward.



A cold front is passing through north central Florida, into the
east central Gulf of Mexico, and to the SW corner of the area near
20N at the coast of Mexico. High level clouds, some from earlier
convective precipitation, cover the area from 90W westward. Broad
upper level westerly wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.

The current cold front will reach from near Tampa Bay to the
eastern Bay of Campeche on Tuesday morning, and will reach the
Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf by Wednesday morning, while it
will remain nearly stationary in the eastern Bay of Campeche. The
front is forecast to move SE of the area on Wednesday. Weak high
pressure will build across the area behind the front. Another weak
cold front is expected to move just offshore the Texas coast
early on Thursday. This next cold front is expected to reach the
eastern Gulf of Mexico by Friday night.


An upper level trough passes through Hispaniola, to 15N75W, to SE
Nicaragua. Comparatively drier and more stable air is apparent in
water vapor imagery, from 11N to 16N from 70W westward to land.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 11N southward. Upper level SW wind flow is pushing high level
moisture northeastward, to the SE of the line that passes through
20N65W 16N70W 11N75W. Isolated moderate rainshowers surround
Hispaniola from 17N to 21N between the Mona Passage to SE

Atlantic Ocean high pressure will maintain fresh to strong trade
winds near the coast of Colombia and the northwest coast of
Venezuela through early Tuesday afternoon. These winds then will
pulse to fresh to strong at night and into the afternoons
beginning tonight. The winds are expected to continue through the
period, but over a smaller coverage area. A weakening cold front
will reach NW Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday.


A cold front passes through 32N51W to 30N54W. A stationary front
continues from 30N54W to 28N60W and 26N70W. Precipitation:
isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong
rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean 27N northward from 75W

An upper level trough extends from a 32N09W cyclonic circulation
center that is in the coastal plains of Morocco, to the Canary
Islands and 25N15W at the coast of the Western Sahara, to 20N34W.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 18N
northward from 40W eastward.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 10N northward
from the cold front/stationary front eastward. A 1031 mb high
pressure center is near 35N31W.

Numerous rainshowers and thunderstorms, with strong gusty winds,
are occurring NE of the Bahamas. A very tight pressure gradient
between broad low pressure over the southeastern United States and
strong high pressure in the western Atlantic Ocean, is producing
strong to near gale force east to southeast winds in the northern
waters west of 70W. These wind conditions will diminish gradually
through Wednesday, while shifting northeast of the area. The
broad low pressure center will track northeastward toward the
mid-Atlantic coast through Wednesday night. The low pressure
center will push a weak cold front across the northwest part of
the area on Tuesday and Tuesday night, and then across the north-
central waters on Wednesday and Thursday, before stalling there
on Thursday night. Another weak cold front will move over the far
northwest part of the area on Friday and Saturday, and over the
north central waters on Saturday night.

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