Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 230004

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.


A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 17N87W. A surface trough is
along 87W, through the 1009 mb low center, from southern Honduras
to the NE coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The system just east of
Belize is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers
extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba and into
the Florida peninsula. Little development is expected during the
next couple of days due to strong upper-level winds and proximity
to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. However, gradual subtropical
or tropical development is possible late this week while the
system moves slowly into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible
across western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and much of Florida
during the next several days. For more information on the heavy
rain threat, please see products issued by your local weather
office. There is a very low possibility of tropical storm
formation over the next 24 hours. There is a medium chance for
tropical formation within 5 days.


A tropical wave is along 39W, S of 11N, moving W 10 to 15 knots.
This wave is embedded in a sharp 700 mb trough. No significant
precipitation accompanies this tropical wave.

A weak tropical wave is along 66W from 17N southward in the
eastern Caribbean Sea, south of Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. No significant
precipitation accompanies this tropical wave. It is likely that
the wave will become diffuse late tonight.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to 03N26W to
01N36W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N-03N between



An upper level trough is in place over the far E Gulf of Mexico
and Florida. Upper level diffluence is E of the trough axis, over
the W Atlantic. A second upper level trough has entered the NW
Gulf. An upper level ridge is over the central Gulf in between the
two troughs.

A surface ridge in the northern Gulf coast will shift eastward
through mid week. A developing low pressure center is forecast
to emerge off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday
night. The low pressure center will move N slowly. It will
approach the N central Gulf coast by Saturday evening, bringing
fresh to strong winds and building seas to the eastern Gulf.


Please read the Special Features section above. Clusters of
scattered moderate convection is inland over Central America from
the Yucatan Peninsula to Panama. An area of scattered moderate
convection is S of Cuba from 15N-22N between 78W-83W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from Hispaniola
eastward. The cyclonic wind flow is moving around a trough, that
passes through the Atlantic Ocean, toward the coast of Venezuela.
Strong subidence is over the E Caribbean.

A surface ridge along 30N will maintain fresh to locally strong
trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea, and strong winds and sea
heights to 9 feet will affect the NW coast of Colombia through
Friday. The low pressure center, that is just to the east of
Belize, will move N into the Gulf of Mexico late on Thursday.
Fresh to strong winds will develop between the trough and the
Atlantic Ocean high pressure center that is to the south of Cuba,
on Friday.


Scattered showers are over the W Atlantic W of 74W to include the
Bahamas and Florida. A 1027 mb high is centered over the central
Atlantic near 31N49W producing fair weather.

An E-to-W oriented ridge along 30N will support gentle to
moderate SE winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh trade winds
south of 22N into the middle of the week. The wind speeds will
pulse to strong N of Hispaniola mainly at night. The winds and
sea heights will diminish slightly by Friday, as the ridge shifts
eastward. SE winds may increase near Cay Sal Bank and the Florida
Straits starting on Friday, as the NW Caribbean Sea low pressure
center moves northward through the Gulf of Mexico.

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