Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 162347

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
747 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N14W
to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from that position to 01N34W and
then extends to the coast of Brazil near 01S50W. Scattered
moderate convection is present within 180 n mi north of the ITCZ
between 25W and 42W.



Fairly quiet weather conditions prevail across the Gulf of Mexico
today with most of the area experiencing light southeastely or
southerly flow on the west side of surface high pressure that is
centered over Florida and the western Atlantic. Sea heights are
fairly low, except over the northwestern Gulf where buoys are
recording 6 ft seas due to the longer fetch. Satellite images
show only patches of clouds, mostly over the western half of the
area, west of about 88W. There could be a few embedded showers
near the northern Gulf coast, in association with low pressure
that is centered over the central U.S. No significant change in
this weather pattern is expected this weekend, so mostly fair
weather and light to moderate winds are forecast to continue.


The undersea volcano Kick `em Jenny, located north of Grenada
near 12.18N 61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of
Grenada advises mariners to observe a 5 km / 3.1 nm exclusion
zone around Kick `em Jenny. Please see for further

The tail end of a weakening stationary front is producing some
clouds and showers over portions of Haiti, the Windward Passage,
and eastern Cuba. Otherwise, fair weather exists across the
remainder of the region with only the typical patches of clouds
moving westward within the trade wind flow. The trade winds are
strongest in the usual location near the coast of Colombia, due to
the pressure gradient between modest high pressure to the north
of the area and lower pressure over northern South America. Sea
heights are also highest near the coast of Colombia, up to 10 ft.
The global models do not show any significant change from the
current weather pattern this weekend, so little change is forecast.


A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N51W and it extends
to 26N60W. The front then becomes stationary from 26N60W to the
Windward Passage. Scattered showers are likely within 180 n mi
west of the front. Weak surface high pressure is located to the
west of the frontal boundary, supported by a 1020 mb high over
central Florida and a 1021 mb high just north of the Bahamas near
26N73W. Over the central and eastern subtropical and tropical
Atlantic, surface high pressure dominates the region anchored by a
1025 mb high located near 29N38W. Although a surface trough is
located near the high from 32N33W to 28N26W, this feature is not
producing any notable weather.

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