Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 161721

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
121 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of western
Africa near 09N14W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W to
02N50W. No significant convection is noted at this time.



Surface ridge prevails across the basin anchored by a 1025 mb high
centered near 30N93W. With this, fair weather prevails across the
whole area, with seas ranging between 4-6 ft west of 90W and 8-10
east of 90W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds are noted in
scatterometer data and surface observations across the Gulf

The high pressure will shift westward across the northern Gulf
through mid week. Southerly return flow will increase over the
northwest Gulf Tue into Wed as the ridge shifts east. A weaker
cold front will drift into the northern Gulf Thu then stall and
dissipate through Fri.


A cold front extends across the west Caribbean from 22N81W to
16N88W. Scattered showers are noted within 75 nm to the east of
the front affecting central Cuba and Cayman Islands at this time.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail across most of the basin
as indicated by a recent scatterometer pass. Fresh to strong east
winds are pulsing every night/early morning off the northeast
Colombia coast with seas building to 9 ft. Altimeter data depicts
5-8 ft seas occurring over the remainder of the basin.

The cold front will stall from central Cuba to central Honduras
late tonight, before dissipating through late Tuesday. Scattered
showers will continue to progress eastward ahead of the cold
front today. Strong NW winds will follow the front from the coast
of Quintana Roo in the Yucatan to the Gulf of Honduras. These
conditions will diminish tonight. Elsewhere, the fresh to strong
trade winds will continue to pulse over the south central
Caribbean through late this week.


A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N75W to
23N80W. Scattered showers are noted within 150 nm to the east of
the front affecting the north and central Bahamas. Fresh to
locally strong northerly winds prevail in the wake of the front,
with seas ranging between 8-11 ft. To the east, a broad area of
high pressure extends across the remander of the basin anchored by
a 1023 mb high centered near 33N57W. The ridge is maintaining light
winds north of 25N, with moderate to fresh trade winds south of
25N. NE to E swell of 7-10 ft persists south of 20N, E of 55W, as
noted in recent altimeter passes.

The entire front will weaken and dissipate later this week. Fresh
to strong winds behind the front will diminish Tuesday and
Wednesday as high pressure becomes centered over the western
Atlantic. The ridge will shift east today ahead of a reinforcing
cold front that will move into the central Atlantic region on
Tuesday. The front will slide east of 35W Wednesday, followed by a
large area of NW swell with wave heights of 8 to 15 ft covering
much of the area north of 20N and east of 45W Wednesday and
Thursday as the swell in excess of 8 ft south of 20N subsides.

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