Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 241658

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1257 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Sierra
Leone/Liberia border and continues to 03N16W. The ITCZ extends
from 03N16W to 01N30W to the Equator at 50W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm N of ITCZ
axis between 20N-27N. Similar convection is also observed from the
Equator to 04N between 46W and 51W.



A cold front extends from near Fort Myers, FL to 24N78W where it
becomes stationary to the central Bay of Campeche. A few tstms are
along the frontal boundary between 85W and 89W, and also near
23N88W. Gentle to moderate northerly flow follows the front with
seas of 2-4 ft. The cold front will move across south Florida and
the SE Gulf this evening, also affecting the Yucatan peninsula and
the eastern Bay of Campeche. The front is forecast to move across
western Cuba and southeast of the area on Wed. The cold front
could support some shower and tstm activity over western Cuba and
the Yucatan penindula on Wed. Weak high pres will once again
build across the gulf region behind the front producing a light to
gentle anticlyclonic flow, and seas generally of 3 ft or less.


Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh to strong trades near
the coast of Colombia and the northwest coast of Venezuela. These
winds will pulse to fresh to strong intensity at night and into
the afternoons beginning tonight. They are expected to continue
through the period, but over a smaller coverage area. A weakening
cold front will reach NW Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula on Wed,
and could increase the likelihooh of showers and tstms.

Abundant moisture to the east of a rather sharp mid/upper trough
is leading to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over
much of the eastern Caribbean, including the Lesser Antilles.
Expect this weather pattern to persist on Wed.


A large area of showers with embedded tstms and gusty winds is
affecting the waters N of 26N W of 70W, including parts of the NW
Bahamas. This convective activity is the result of a stationary
frontal boundary extending across the Atlantic from 31N51W to
27N65W to 31N75W. A very well pronounced diffluent pattern aloft
is also helping to induce this convective activity. In addition, a
very tight pressure gradient between broad low pressure over the
southeastern United States and strong high pressure over the
western Atlantic is producing strong to near gale force east to
southeast winds over the northern waters, particularly N of 27N
between 72W and 78W based on buoy and ship observations. Seas in
that area are in the 8-12 ft range. A recent scatterometer pass
also confirmed the presence of these strong winds. These marine
conditions will gradually diminish through Wed while shifting
northeast of the area. The broad low pressure over the SE CONUS
will track northeastward toward the mid-Atlantic coast through Wed
night dragging a cold front across the northwest portion of the
forecast area. The front will reach from 31N78W to south Florida
and the Florida Keys tonight, and from 31N74W to western Cuba on
Wed. The remainder of the Atantic Ocean is under the influence of
a 1031 mb high pressure located SW of the Azores near 35N30W.

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