221
AXNT20 KNHC 111025
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Jul 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed near 24W from 06N-17N, moving west at
around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from
07.5N-14N and E of 27W.

A tropical wave is analyzed near 38W-39W, from 08N-20N, moving
west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07.5N-09.5N between 38W and 43W.

A tropical wave is along 61W-62W from 07N to 18N, moving west at
15 kt. Saharan Air surrounds the wave environment north of 13N,
and continues to inhibit convection. A few clusters of scattered
moderate isolated strong convection have recently developed just
ahead of the wave from 11.5N-14N between 63W and 67W.

A tropical wave is analyzed near 75W from 20N to northern Colombia,
moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is noted along the monsoon trough along 10N-11N, and over the S
half of Colombia.

A tropical wave previously analyzed near 89W has shifted westward
of the Atlantic basin and is now across Guatemala and the
adjacent eastern tropical Pacific.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17W to 07N42W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N42W to 05N53W. Aside from the convection
related to the tropical waves described above, scattered showers
are noted along the ITCZ mainly W of 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1020 mb high is centered near 27N87W, leading to light to
gentle anticyclonic winds across most of the Gulf. Slight seas of
4 ft and less prevail across the basin. The diurnal thermal
trough is exiting the Yucatan Peninsula and entering the Bay of
Campeche, accompanied by moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds
along the western and northwestern coastal waters of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Scattered small cells of moderate convection dot the
Gulf from 22.5N-26.5N between the Florida Keys and 94W.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will prevail across the
basin through the forecast period. Fresh to strong NE to E winds
will pulse along the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening
as a trough develops inland daily and shifts westward over the Bay
of Campeche at night. A surface trough is expected to develop
across Florida by Mon and drift westward into the eastern Gulf on
Tue, accompanied by active weather.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on convection associated
with the tropical waves.

A moderate pressure gradient between a 1025 mb Bermuda High and
lower pressure along the monsoon trough over the SW Caribbean is
forcing fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean, while
moderate to fresh winds accompany a tropical wave entering the
eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere to
the north and west. Rough seas to 9 ft are in the south-central
and SW Caribbean, moderate seas in the central and E Caribbean,
and slight seas in the NW Caribbean. Dry and stable middle level
conditions are combining with Saharan Air across much of the basin
to limit convection to near the tropical wave entering the basin
and along the monsoon trough. Otherwise, fair and hazy skies
prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and low pressure over NW Colombia and the SW basin will continue
to support pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas across
the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh
east winds are expected across the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at
night, into early next week. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate
seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean through the weekend
while gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will
prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on convection associated
with the tropical waves and the monsoon trough over the basin.

A broad surface ridge continues to dominate the basin between 15W
and the southeastern U.S., extending along roughly along 32N-33N.
A 1025 mb Bermuda High is centered near 33N60W and extends
southwestward across the northern Bahamas and into southern
Florida, while a 1026 mb Azores High is near 32N21W. A modest
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the
ITCZ/monsoon trough is producing only moderate to fresh trades
west of 40W and moderate trades between the Cabo Verdes and 40W.
Recent satellite scatterometer data showed fresh to locally strong
trades across the northern coastal waters of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola extending through the southern Bahamas, as well as
between the Canary Islands and coastal Western Sahara. Moderate
seas prevail over these forecast waters, except for seas 7 to 8 ft
from 11N to 15N between 50W and the Lesser Antilles. Stable
atmospheric conditions are being reinforced by a broad swath of
Saharan Air that prevails over most of the trade wind zone south
of 23N, and is limiting convection. Scattered popcorn convection
dots the northern waters from 26N-31N between 52W and 67W, while a
few clusters of moderate convection persist across the northwest
waters north of 30N between 71W and 80W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will gradually
shift eastward and weaken through the upcoming weekend. The
related pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate winds,
except for fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds off the
northern coast of Hispaniola through Sat. Winds and seas will
diminish Sun through early Mon, then increase modestly Tue.

$$
Stripling