Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 192355

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
754 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.


An upper-level trough extends across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
and western Caribbean, with a diffluent flow aloft prevailing
across the Florida Peninsula and western Atlantic/Caribbean mainly
east of the upper trough`s axis. This pattern is drawing deep
tropical moisture northward from the SW Caribbean between 77W and
83W and is supporting numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection along this corridor. This activity is expected to
continue through the weekend and early next week with heavy
rainfall flooding possible over the land areas affected.


A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from
13N51W to 04N53W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. This wave has slowed
down its forward motion over the past 24 hours and is expected to
become diffuse east of the Caribbean over the next couple of
days. Numerous showers and isolated moderate convection are within
300 nm of either side of the wave axis S of 10N.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W to 04N23W. The ITCZ continues from 04N23W to 01N35W to
the Brazil coast near 01N49W. Besides the convection associated
with the tropical wave, isolated moderate convection prevails
from 01N to 05N E of 44W.



An upper-level trough prevails across the eastern Gulf, with an
axis along 85W. A diffluent flow east of the trough is bringing
tropical moisture over the far east Gulf and western Atlantic
waters affecting the Florida Peninsula and Florida Straits/Keys. A
surface trough is depicted within this convection and extends
from 27N80W to 23N82W. This activity is expected to continue
through the weekend. A weak ridge axis extends across the
remainder of the basin along 30N producing mainly gentle to
moderate winds.

The surface trough is expected move into the eastern Gulf through
Sunday. The upper-level trough over the eastern Gulf will remain
for several days, thus a similar wet pattern is expected through
this period over the eastern Gulf.


An upper-level trough extends over the eastern Gulf of mexico and
western Caribbean. Upper-level diffluence on the eastern side of
this trough is supporting scattered to numerous moderate
convection across the Caribbean waters between 76W-84W. Broad
high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic continues to support
moderate to fresh tradewinds over most of the basin, except fresh
to strong winds over the central Caribbean. Wave heights of 8 to
10 ft persist over the central Caribbean as confirmed by a recent
satellite altimeter pass and current buoy data.

Over the next couple of days, the upper-level trough will remain
in place enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity over the
western Caribbean. The surface ridging pattern over the Atlantic
will persist, keeping a similar wind profile in place across the
basin into early next week.


A diffluent flow aloft to the east of an upper-level trough
currently over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, combined with a
surface trough extending just offshore of NE Florida is
supporting scattered to numerous moderate convection across
Florida, the Bahamas, and Atlantic waters mainly west of 76W. High
pressure centered over the N Central Atlantic spans the Atlantic
waters east of Florida to the northwest African coast. An earlier
afternoon scatterometer pass indicated fresh to locally strong
southeast winds over a portion of the Bahamas as well as NE of
Hispaniola, with these winds likely also occurring NW of
Hispaniola. A recent altimeter pass indicates wave heights of 8 to
9 ft over these waters outside of the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh
tradewinds are occurring elsewhere across the central and western
Atlantic south of 27N. Gentle to moderate winds cover the central
Atlantic north of 27N. Moderate to occasionally fresh north to
northeast winds are occurring over the eastern Atlantic.

The overall pattern will change little over the weekend.
Therefore, the chances for heavy rainfall over the Florida
Peninsula, Bahamas, and western Atlantic will continue.

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