Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 131715

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
115 PM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of western
Africa near 09N13W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to
03N35W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
within 180 n mi north of the ITCZ between 31W and 49W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is located from 04N to
08N between 13W and 17W.



No significant shower activity is occurring across the Gulf of
Mexico today as the western extension of a surface ridge and
abundant dry air aloft continues to support fair weather.  The
surface winds are generally out of the southeast or south and
are strongest over the northwestern waters, where buoys and
ships are reporting 20-25 kt winds.  The highest seas are
estimated to be near 7 ft off the Texas and Louisiana coasts.
Seas are notably lower over the eastern Gulf waters due to the
lighter winds and limited fetch.

Looking ahead to the weekend, a cold front is expected to move
over the northwestern waters by Saturday morning.  This boundary
is then expected to sweep across the entire area by Sunday
night, with strong northwesterly winds in its wake.


Fairly quiet weather conditions are occurring over the Caribbean
Sea today, with only the typical patches of clouds and embedded
showers moving westward across the region.  The showers appear
more concentrated over the eastern Caribbean, generally north of
15N and east of 72 W.  The trade wind flow is moderate due to
weak ridging north of the area and strong flow is generally
confined to the usual location, near the north coast of
Colombia. Seas are also fairly moderate, generally 4 to 6 ft,
except a little higher near the coast of Colombia.

High pressure is expected to strengthen to the north of the
area, this will cause winds and seas to increase by late this
weekend.  A late season cold front is expected to make it to the
northwestern waters Sunday night or early Monday before
weakening shortly thereafter.


A stationary front is producing scattered showers within 120 n
mi of its axis that extends from 32N50W to 27N60W.  A weak
trough has broken off the tail end of the front and is analyzed
from 29N64W to 25N68W.  Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring within 120 n mi east and 60 n mi
west of that axis.  Winds are around 20 kt just north and
northwest of the trough axis due to the pressure gradient
between that feature and high pressure to the north of the area.
Otherwise, generally tranquil weather prevails across the
remainder of the western Atlantic.

Looking ahead to the weekend, southerly flow is expected to
increase over the far western Atlantic waters ahead of the next
cold front.  This front is expected to move over the western
Atlantic Sunday night and early Monday.

Farther east, a 1029 mb high pressure system is centered over
the eastern Atlantic near 29N34W. This high pressure is
maintaining light to moderate winds north of 20N and moderate to
fresh trade winds farther south over the deep tropics of the
eastern Atlantic.  Earlier altimeter satellite passes indicate
seas of 8 to 10 ft mainly south of 20N, likely in NE to E swell.

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