Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 151802

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
202 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N11W
to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 02N30W to the coast
of Brazil near 0N50W. Scattered moderate convection is present
within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ between 17W and 34W and from
02S to 04N W of 42W.



High pressure of 1024 mb centered just SW of the Floirda
Panhandle near 28N87W is generally maintaining light to moderate
N to NE winds E of 90W and E to SE winds of the same magnitude
over the western half of the Gulf. The high will migrate southeast
to central Florida by Friday morning then over the SW N Atlantic
waters by early Saturday morning, and is forecast to dissipate E
of the Bahamas late night on Saturday. Light to moderate northeast
winds will generally veer to SE today then to S on Fri as the
high shifts ESE. Return flow on the western half of the basin
will become moderate to fresh on late tonight ahead of an area of
low pressure developing in the southern plains.


The frontal boundary over the NW Caribbean has dissipated and NE
winds has diminished to moderate. Remnant moisture associated
with it continue to support isolated showers in the Windward
Passage and the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong trades prevail
over the south-central Caribbean waters being the strongest winds
along the coast of Colombia. These winds will hold through the
upcoming weekend increasing to 30 kt at night off Colombia. Moderate
trades dominate elsewhere across the basin. Relatively dry
conditions prevail and will continue during the weekend being
supported by a mid-level ridge that will move from the west.


A middle to upper level low centered between Newfoudland and Nova
Scotia, supports a broad area of low pressure with associated gale
force winds N of the area. A cold front extends from this low,
which tail extends along 30N62W to 26N67W. A second cold front
extends from 30N57W to 21N68W to the approches of the Windward
Passage. Scattered showers are within 120 nm ahead of the front N
of 22N. Fresh to strong southerly winds are within 305 nm ahead
of the front N of 26N supported by a stronger pressure gradient
between the front and broad high pressure over the the central
Atlc. The reinforcing front will merge with the primary front
Friday evening. The combined front will then dissipate into a
trough during the weekend. High pressure will shift E from the NE
Gulf of Mexico behind the front later today and Fri, then continue
east into the west Atlantic along 27N this weekend. A broad area
of high pressure prevails across the central and eastern Atlantic,
anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 28N41W. The high is
maintaining moderate to fresh northeast winds over the tropical
Atlantic north of the ITCZ between 30W and the Windward Islands.

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