Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 141159

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
759 AM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from Liberia on the African coast near
07N12W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to the coast of
Brazil near 01S45W. No significant convection is currently
associated with these boundaries.



High pressure S from the Central Plains is generally maintaining
moderate NE winds over the Gulf. A tighter pressure gradient over
southern Mexico is supporting fresh winds over the Bay of
Campeche. The high will migrate SE from the Central Plains to the
NE Gulf by Fri. Moderate to fresh NE winds will gradually veer to
SE as the high pressure migrates to the NE Gulf. Return flow on
the west side of the high will become moderate to fresh on Fri.


A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near 20N78W to
Belize near 18N88W. The front will dissipate by Thursday. Fresh
to strong trades are observed N of the front as well as the
waters S of 18N and east of 80W. Deep layer low pres will linger
near the NE United States during the next few days. This will keep
the ridge N of the Caribbean weak and cap winds along the coast
of Colombia generally between 20 and 25 kt during the next few
days. Otherwise, light to moderate trades and relatively dry
conditions are expected to prevail during the next several days as
mid to upper-level ridging extending over the basin from the SE
maintains a benign weather pattern.


A cold front extends across the west-central Atlantic from 31N56W
to 25N65W, then becomes stationary from that point to 21N75W.
Winds along the front continue to subside as the parent low
centered S of Maine lifts farther N. Scattered showers are present
along and up to 60 nm NW of the front N of 28N. The convection
associated with the front will shift eastward and diminish tonight
as the front continues slowly pushing east. A secondary cold
front pushing SE from the Mid Atlc States will cause the northern
part of the front to begin moving east again by Wednesday night
before the two boundaries merge. The combined front will then
dissipate into a trough by the end of the week. High pres will
build from the NW behind the front late Wed and shift E into the W
Atlc along 27N Fri and Sat. Otherwise, a broad area of high
pressure prevails across the central and eastern Atlantic,
anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 27N38W. The high is
maintaining moderate to fresh NE winds over the tropical Atlantic
N of the ITCZ between 30W and the Windward Islands.

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