Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 121739

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
139 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.


...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front extends across the basin from 27N83W to 20N96W. A
weaker boundary is noted north of it from 29N83W to 24N92W. At
this time, a Gale Warning is in effect for the waters east of
Tampico Mexico from 21N-24.5N and west of 96W. By this afternoon,
the gale force winds will spread south mainly south of 21N and
west of 96W as the front moves southeast. These conditions will
continue through the next 24 hours. Please read the latest
Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning...

A cold front is extending across the west Atlantic from 31N77W to
29N81W. Expect gale-force winds to develop this evening north of
28N west of the cold front to 80W, with sea heights ranging from 8
feet to 11 feet. These conditions will end by Tuesday evening.
Please read the latest Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.


The monsoon trough extends across the African coast reaching the
east Atlantic near 08N13W to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from that
point to 04S38W. Isolated showers are noted within 200 nm mainly
south of the monsoon trough and east of 15W.



A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf waters near
Tampico. These conditions will move south with the front over the
Bay of Campeche. Please refer to the section above for more
details. As of 1500 UTC, the cold front extends from 27N82W to
24N88W to 19N95W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 25N81W to
23N87W to 20N91W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are noted within 45 nm on either side of the trough east of 85W.
Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds across
the majority of the basin north of the front while gentle to
moderate westerly winds are noted south of the front.

The front will continue moving across the basin reaching the
Straits of Florida by this evening. Strong northerly winds
will diminish from the northwest through tonight. A ridge will
extend from northeast Texas to the Straits of Florida on Tuesday,
then a high pressure will be centered in the northeast Gulf from
Thursday through the end of the week.


Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the waters east
of 80W, except for near gale-force winds just to the north of the
A-B-C islands expected through Tuesday night. A cold front will
enter the northwest Caribbean tonight. The front will reach from
central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Tuesday, stall from
Hispaniola to Nicaragua on Tuesday night, and dissipate by
Thursday. High pressure will build southeastward from the Gulf of
Mexico into the northwest Caribbean by the end of the work-week.


Gale force winds will develop over the western Atlantic this
evening. Please refer to the section above for details. A cold
front extends from 31N77W to 29N81W. An area of scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms is developing ahead of the
front from 25N-31W between 70W-80W. To the east, a broad area of
high pressure prevails across the remainder of the basin. A 1021
mb high is centered near 29N50W. A pair of 1026 mb highs are to
the east of the first one near 26N42W and 28N27W. A weak frontal
boundary extends from 31N38W to 28N45W as a cold front, then
becomes stationary to 27N52W.

The convection northwest of the Bahamas will shift east today. The
cold front will continue pushing east, followed by near gale-to-
gale force winds N of 28N through Tuesday evening. The front will
reach from 30N65W to E Cuba on Tuesday, stalling from 26N65W to E
Cuba through Tuesday night. High pressure building from the
northwest will cause the northern part of the front to begin
moving east once again by Wednesday night.

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