Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 101202

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
702 AM EST Sat Mar 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.


A recent scatterometer pass indicate minimal gale force across the
Gulf of Venezuela. A Gale Warning is in effect across the area
from 11N to 13N between 70W and 77W, including the waters near the
coast of Colombia. The sea heights will range from 10-12 feet.
The gale-force wind conditions will dissipate early this morning,
and then they will start again tonight. Please read the Atlantic
Ocean High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2, and
under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N12W to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W, to
04N20W to 01N30W, crossing the Equator along 33W, to 02S44W near
the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-06N
betwen 11W-17W. Similar convection is within about 180 nm N of
ITCZ axis between 26W-33W.



High pressure of 1021 mb located E of Florida extends a ridge
across the Gulf region. An area of showers with embedded tstms is
currently noted across the northern Gulf, covering mainly the
area N of 25N between 85W and 95W, and this convective activity
is associated with an upper-level trough. Winds and seas could be
higher near tstms. A cold front will move off the Texas coast Sun
morning, and race SE across the entire gulf waters through Sun
night, passing through the Straits of Florida on Mon afternoon.
Strong northerly winds in the wake of the front will diminish from
the northwest through Mon night. Seas will reach 8 to 10 ft over
the western Gulf waters under the stronger winds. A ridge will
extend from northeast Texas to the Straits of Florida on Tue, and
shift northeast through Thu.


Fresh to strong trades will continue across the waters east of
80W, except increasing to minimal gale force during the
overnight hours off the northwest coast of Colombia through Sun
night, and over the Gulf of Venezuela early this morning, and
tnight. Please see Special Features section. The largest areal
extent of the strong winds over the central Caribbean is expected
over this weekend with high pressure centered NE of the region. As
the high pressure shifts east early next week, the wind speeds
over the Caribbean will decrease. A cold front will pass east
through the Yucatan Basin on Mon, reaching from central Cuba to
the Gulf of Honduras on Mon night, stalling from Hispaniola to
Nicaragua on Tue night, and dissipating on Wed.


A 1021 mb high pressure is located E of Florida near 28N77W and
extends a ridge across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. A cold
front stretches from 31N56W to the Windward Passage where fresh to
strong NE winds are noted. Scattered showers and isolated tstms
are seen along the frontal boundary. The front will stall across
the tropical waters north of the Greater Antilles tonight.
Remnants of the front will lift north on Sun ahead of another cold
front moving off the northeast Florida coast on Sun night. This
second cold front will extend from near 31N75W to northwest Cuba
late Mon, and stall from 25N65W to east Cuba on Wed. Fresh to
strong SW winds will develop ahead of this cold front over the
waters N of 28N on Sun, and expand across the waters W of 65W, N
of 25N Sun night into Mon. Fresh to strong NW winds will follow
the front. Another 1021 mb high pressure is over the central
Atlantic near 24N52W. Farther E, a weakening cold front crosses
the Canary Islands. Seas of up to 13-14 ft are noted per altimeter
data across the waters N of 20N E of 30W in northerly swell.

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