Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 220908
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
408 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

...Updated Short Term and Long Term Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

The persistent upper level low which brought periods of light rain
to our area will finally be moving out today. Low clouds this
morning will give way to sunshine, but probably not until late
this morning or perhaps even midday (especially toward central and
south central KS). A narrow surface ridge axis will remain across
western Kansas today, resulting in light surface winds, generally
10 to 14 mph from the north or northeast. 850mb temperatures will
be slow to rise through the mid to upper single digits (degC),
thus surface temperatures will struggle to push through the 50s,
finally topping out around 60 for most locations. Tonight`s
weather will be just as quiet, as winds die off to almost nothing.
A mostly clear sky with the light winds should allow temperatures
to bottom out in the mid to upper 30s most locations (perhaps some
lower 30s in Hamilton and Scott County).

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

A fairly decent shortwave trough will be pushing south-
southeastward across the Colorado Rockies and adjacent High Plains
Tuesday. This storm system should provide another good chance for
at least some light accumulating rainfall behind the surface
front. The precipitation would be tied to the mid level
frontogenetic zone as it pushes south late Tuesday into Tuesday
evening. The surface front itself should push south fairly quickly
early to midday Tuesday. The current temperature forecast for
Tuesday will probably change a little bit in future updates as
higher resolution models get a better handle on the synoptic
setting and resulting surface response. The global models suggest
a pretty decent density current pushing quickly south down western
Kansas, and there will likely be a 3 to 5 hour period of fairly
strong north winds, perhaps well in excess of 20 knots sustained.
We did raise the wind grids above the SuperBlend guidance given
this meteorology (thanks GLD, AMA PUB for the coordination). The
SuperBlend POPs were not altered, which gives much of the area
30-50 POPs either in the Tuesday period or Tuesday Night period
(or both). At any rate, this continues to look like a rather light
QPF event with most areas probably seeing not much more than a
quarter inch.

Beyond this storm system Tuesday-Tuesday Night, another wave in
the northwest flow pattern will push across the Central Plains
Thursday Night or Friday, which will reinforce cooler temperatures
(after one decent mild day Thursday). There is quite a bit of
model uncertainty going into the weekend, but the early read is
that longwave ridging may move out across the Rockies and adjacent
High Plains leading to fairly tranquil weather and warming
temperatures back into the 70s (and perhaps some lower 80s?)

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

The slow-moving upper low will continue to pull away from
southwest Kansas through the period. The greatest challenge in the
TAF will be how long to hold on to IFR/MVFR ceilings, as they
slowly dissolve through the first half of this TAF period. It
appears that all terminals should see VFR after 12Z, with greatest
uncertainty in flight category in the 09-12Z time frame. Another
complicating element is development of patchy/areas of fog should
ceiling scatter out, particularly at GCK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  38  69  44 /   0   0   0  20
GCK  60  36  69  43 /   0   0   0  30
EHA  62  38  72  43 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  61  39  71  44 /   0   0   0  20
HYS  60  40  68  44 /   0   0   0  20
P28  62  42  70  45 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid



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