Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 171725
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1225 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

...Updated Short Term Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Currently, a warm front has been retreating through the CWA from
southwest to northeast, and will stall out south of the I-70
corridor. This will bring in stronger, dry southwest air
downsloping from a surface trough across eastern Colorado down
into northeastern New Mexico. Temperatures this afternoon will
surge into the 80s for most of the area with 90s possible along
the Oklahoma border. Winds will gust up to 35mph this afternoon
under a tight pressure gradient. An upper level trough will begin
to push into western Kansas this evening supporting a surface cold
front that will drop through by sunset shifting winds out of the
northwest. The lack of any strong upper level divergence will cut
off any precipitation chances, staying well north of the CWA. A
very strong pressure gradient is evident behind the frontal
boundary with high northwest winds behind it. Coupled with a
strong mixing of the cold air pool behind the aforementioned
front, winds will be at or near high wind warning criteria through
midnight. After midnight, the winds will diminish gusting only to
25-30mph as the pressure gradient relaxes in the wake of the
frontal boundary still out of the northwest.

The northwest surface flow will continue for tomorrow with a dry,
downsloping effect for much of the day heading into the evening
hours. Temperatures will start a little on the cooler side due to
the cold front ranging from the 30s in the west and northern
counties, and 40s for the southeastern counties. Afternoon highs
will only reach the 60s for the entire CWA. Upper level ridging
will build back up over the Rocky Mountain west, allowing for
surface high pressure to push back into western Kansas Wednesday
evening calming winds to variable conditions over night before
returning to the more southerly fetch of winds. No other
significant weather elements are forecasted in the short term,
with winds and a slight cool down being the main factor for
tonight and heading into Wednesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Dry conditions continue Wednesday into Thursday as an upper level
ridge moves over the Rockies and eventually through the Plains.
Towards the surface, high pressure will be the dominate feature
across western Kansas during this time period. Strong northerly
winds are expected to continue across western Kansas during the
day Wednesday. Meanwhile, the next storm system moves into the
western United States Wednesday night then into the Four Corner`s
Region Thursday. Winds shift back to a southerly direction
Thursday as the area of high pressure oozes eastward and troughing
strengthens across eastern Colorado. Cloud cover will then
increase from west to east Thursday night with far western Kansas
having a chance of precipitation after midnight. Precipitation
chances increase across the entire forecast area Friday and
continue into Saturday. This system then moves out of the area
Saturday night with dry conditions Sunday into Monday. As of now,
all precipitation looks to fall as rain, with the exception of
west central Kansas Saturday night where there could be a mix of
rain and snow. As for temperatures, highs will generally be in the
60s Wednesday and Thursday, 50s and low 60s Friday, then in the
50s Saturday and Sunday. Lows will generally be in the 30s to low
40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

VFR conditions will prevail for all TAF locations with only few
upper level cirrus at best with unrestricted visibility. Winds
will be the key player this afternoon and over night with gusty
southwest winds turning out of the northwest between 00-01Z as
high as 45-50kts before diminishing after 06Z to gusts up to 25kts
through the end of the period. The wind shift is due to a cold
frontal boundary that will push through this evening with a strong
pressure gradient behind it coupled with good mixing of the cooler
air. Expect the highest winds between the 00-06Z time frame for
all TAF sites right behind the aforementioned frontal passage.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  40  66  34 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  87  37  64  33 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  90  37  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  89  39  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  73  39  62  33 /   0  10   0   0
P28  87  46  69  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Wednesday for
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>079-084>087.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lowe
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Lowe



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