Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 131701

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1201 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

08z Tuesday radar and satellite trends this morning supports the
latest RAP in producing some light/very light precipitation
across portions of far southwest Kansas as an upper level trough
crosses the West Central High Plains. The area most favorable for
this light precipitation will be south of a Johnson City to Meade
line where better moisture, warm air advection, and the
isentropic lift in the i285 to i295 level from the RAP will be
present. Timing of this will be mainly from 12z to 18z Tuesday.
Little to no accumulation is expected.

In addition to this slight chance for rain early this morning in
far southwest Kansas the cloud cover will also hold temperatures
down in this area this afternoon. Some breaks of sun still will be
possible late day in so will continue to favor the warmer
guidance for highs today around Elkhart and Liberal but if clouds
hold on longer than what we think then temperatures may struggle
to warm much higher than 50 degrees. Further northeast dry
conditions will continue and morning clouds will give way to
afternoon sunshine. Highs today in this area should be similar to
the highs yesterday. Highs this afternoon will be mainly in the
mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

On Wednesday a trough of low pressure at the surface will deepen
across eastern Colorado as an upper level ridge crosses the
central Rockies. As the westerly downslope flow improves mid week
the 850mb temperature trends show a nice warm up across eastern
Colorado and western Kansas. Net 24 hour temperature change from
00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday is forecast to range from 7 to 10C.
Another 7 to near 10C warmup is once again forecast to occur from
00z Thursday to 00z Friday. This continues to support unseasonably
warm temperatures currently forecast on Wednesday and Thursday
with highs near 85 in several locations still looking on track.
Some records will be in jeopardy on Thursday afternoon. At Dodge
City the record high for March 15th is 83, and 84 is the record at
Garden City. Medicine Lodge Record high for March 15th is 84. All
three of these records were set in 2013.

Gusty winds and dry conditions will accompany this warmup mid
week and based on the expected gusty southwest winds and afternoon
relative humidity values falling back into the 15 to 25 percent
range...elevated to near critical fire risk levels are expected
both days.

This mornings GFS and ECMWF were coming into better agreement
with the strength and timing of an upper level trough as it
crosses the West Central High Plains Thursday night and Friday.
The late week cold front is now expected late Friday as an upper
level trough crosses the West Central High Plains. This will bring
an end to the mid week warmup and following this solution it
looks like conditions once again will be favorable for another day
where relative humidity values fall back into the teens along
with gusty in excess of 25 mph. Elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions will once again be possible, especially west
and south of Dodge City. Outdoor burning should not be attempted
from Wednesday through Friday.

Friday night into early Saturday gusty north winds will develop
behind a cold front which will move from southern Kansas into
Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle . These gusty winds should
subside during the day on Saturday as an area of high pressure at
the surface crosses the Central Plains. The current forecast highs
on Saturday may end up being a little too warm based on the
forecast 850mb temperatures at 00z Sunday . This cool down will be
brief as another warmup is expected late this upcoming weekend
and into early next week.

Precipitation chances over the next seven days will be small but
it does look like there will be a slight chance for some scattered
thunderstorms across northern Kansas Friday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

VFR and mostly SKC conditions through the time period with the
exception of a few high clouds towards the end of the TAF
forecast. Winds will stay relatively light until mid Wednesday
morning. Winds will start to pick up around 13Z and then increase
by 16Z in the 15-25 kt range with gusts up to 30 kts. These strong
winds will continue into the afternoon.


Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

A mid to late week warming trend still looks on track which will
bring record or near record warmth to western Kansas Thursday
afternoon. This combined with gusty southwest winds and dry
conditions will result in elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions across western Kansas Wednesday and Thursday. Wind
gusts in excess of 30 will be possible at times each afternoon,
especially Thursday afternoon, based on the forecast mixed layer
winds and the tight surface pressure gradient. The stronger winds
will be more likely on Thursday. Elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions will once again be possible Friday, especially
west and south of Dodge City. Outdoor burning should not be
attempted across western Kansas from Wednesday through Friday.


DDC  57  30  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  57  30  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  54  36  73  44 /  20  10   0   0
LBL  57  32  71  44 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  54  27  72  40 /   0   0   0   0
P28  58  30  68  42 /   0   0   0   0




SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Burgert is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.