


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
478 FXUS63 KDDC 300751 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 251 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms after 5 pm and continuing through tonight as a cold front crosses southwest Kansas. Main hazards will be strong damaging winds greater than 65 mph and locally heavy rainfall. - Cooler temperatures will start off the work week but a warming trend will return to southwest Kansas mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Early morning radar analysis show two areas of storms that bear watching as we continue into the rest of this morning. The first area is the heavy storms in the southeast portion of the CWA and the second area is storm development in northwest and north central Kansas. 07z mesoanalysis continue to show very weak flow aloft, leading to very slow storm motions. The area across the southeastern portions of the CWA features mainly a heavy rain risk, with some isolated areas of flooding possible. Farther north features slightly stronger flow and that is evidenced by more forward propagation of the storms, and that will translate into our northern CWA as the morning wears on. Steep mid level lapse rates and congealing into more of an MCS could foster strong to potentially isolated damaging wind gusts as the cluster becomes more organized. Storms look to clear the eastern CWA after 14z. As we go into later today, we will clear out and leave a mainly dry forecast across the forecast area. High pressure develops across the northern high plains, placing southwest Kansas in northeasterly winds. As such, temperatures will be not as hot as they have been, only topping out in the middle 80s and low 90s in our southeast counties. Looking through mid week, low to very low storm chances exist, with temperatures gradually warming back into the 90s by Friday and the weekend. Storm chances increase Friday and into this weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Biggest story for aviation during the overnight continues be the thunderstorm chances in southwest Kansas. Most of the more robust activity has diminished, but additional storms are likely to propagate eastward throughout the overnight hours. HYS has the highest chance for storms to impact, so added PROB30s there from 10-12z. Strong downburst winds will be possible with any storm that directly impacts an airport. Low chances at other terminals. Storms clear out into later this morning, remaining VFR at all locations. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bennett AVIATION...Bennett