Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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046
FXUS63 KDDC 251040
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
540 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Two small mesoscale convective systems (MCS) were moving southeast
across central Kansas through north central Oklahoma during the
overnight hours. These two MCSs will continue to push away from the
southwest Kansas region, and an upstream shortwave ridge across the
Rockies will be the main influence on western Kansas weather for
today. Weak northwest flow aloft will occur across southwest Kansas
this afternoon with a nebulous 700mb baroclinic zone around,
although surface winds will be fairly weak and lack of defined low
level convergence is expected to prevent organized thunderstorm
development today. The only area that could see the best chance for
anything at least somewhat organized would be southern Barber County
late this afternoon as a weak surface low tries to redevelop
somewhere in the vicinity of the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle. As
temperatures warm into the lower 90s and dewpoints in the upper 50s
to lower 60s, a rogue isolated strong to marginally severe storm
cannot be ruled out just about anywhere, but will be keeping the
POPs below 20 percent with no mention of Wx in official forecast for
today/this evening (with the exception of Barber County).

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

The mentioned upper level ridge in the Short Term section will move
slowly across western Kansas through Saturday, and this will keep a
lid on any thunderstorm activity. This will also result in
temperatures warming well into the mid to upper 90s. Things start to
change by Sunday afternoon as the leading edge of southwest flow
aloft impinges on far western Kansas. This will foster development
of the surface leeside trough and increased convergence along the
Colorado border. Low level moisture will slowly pull back to the
west, and at least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected
anywhere along the leeside trough, as both the ECMWF and GFS global
models have a QPF signal along/east of the leeside trough. This
should be the first of multiple days of thunderstorm activity. In
fact, Monday and Tuesday look particularly interesting as the upper
low approaches the Rockies. The latest ECMWF and GFS show this low
slowly dissolving and lifting north into the northern High Plains by
Tuesday, but the base of the remnant trough will be moving out
across the Central High Plains, and there should be enough westerly
momentum in the mid levels to provide adequate deep layer shear for
organized severe thunderstorm activity.

Going into the middle part of next week, the southern branch of the
upper level jet will be moving into the Desert Southwest region,
which will continue the theme of southwest flow aloft, keeping some
form of the leeside trough/low in check at the surface just to our
west/southwest. As long as this pattern holds, strong/severe
thunderstorm activity will be in the cards for at least some portion
of western Kansas. There is some indication by late in the week that
very hot 850mb air will develop on the southern High Plains of 30+
degrees C, and if this is the case, we will see some 100-degree
afternoon temperatures for a fair portion of southwest Kansas
Thursday and/or Friday (toward the end of this forecast period).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 537 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Quiet aviation weather is forecast today as an upper level ridge
of high pressure builds to the west of western Kansas.
Organized thunderstorm activity will remain south and east of the
terminals later this afternoon and evening. Winds are also
expected to remain just at or below 12 knots through the period
with VFR conditions forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  63  96  67 /  10  10   0   0
GCK  95  61  97  66 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  95  60  98  65 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  96  61  98  66 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  94  62  96  67 /  10  10   0   0
P28  95  66  96  69 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid



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