Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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755
FXUS63 KDDC 261759
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1259 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

...Updated Short Term Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

The story of the rest of today will be hot and breezy.
Temperatures will swarm into the mid to upper 90s across the
entire CWA due to being under an induced upper level ridge down
stream of a deep long wave trough across the Great Basin. Winds
will pick up out of the south to southeast with gusts up to 25
mph. Western counties will see a more westerly component of the
south winds allowing for a dry, downsloping wind elevating fire
danger for these areas with relative humidity values in the upper
teens. Increasing high clouds this afternoon as well, spilling
over the aforementioned upper level ridge already visible on IR
satellite. Winds will die off after sunset due to night time
cooling and a weak temperature inversion setting up at the
surface. Over night low temperatures will only drop to the mid to
upper 60s, and due to the moist southeast flow and high dewpoints
close to the temperature, some areas will again see dew on the
grass and windshields at sunrise. Winds will pick up in the
afternoon gusting up to 25 mph out of the south to southeast under
max heating and ample low level mixing. Temperatures will again
soar into the mid 90s.

The story for late Sunday afternoon and evening, will be the risk
of severe weather being in a marginal risk at this time. The
aforementioned upper level trough will push eastward more over the
inter-mountain region of the Rockies. The instability will be
there with the hot temperatures and CAPE values in the 1500-2000
J/kg range with ample low level moisture due to the southeast
flow. There looks to be good 0-6km shear as well around 30-35kts,
but due to increasing temperature in the mid levels the further
south of the boundary, the more of a cap there will be limiting
any severe development. Air parcels that are able to push through
the cap will have the potential for large hail up to 2 inches and
60 mph winds, but no concerns in regards to tornados. The time
frame looks to be development around 5-7PM in the western counties
and moving eastward through sunset before dieing off shortly there
after by 10-11PM.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Severe weather risk will be increasing starting late Sunday as the
California trough approaches the Rockies and adjacent western Great
Plains. All models suggest a fairly classic severe weather pattern
for the western Great Plains with multiple days of southwest flow 30-
40 knots in the mid levels of the troposphere over fairly strong
south/southeast flow in the lower troposphere. Early indications
from GFS and NAM forecast hodographs are that supercell thunderstorm
structures will likely be the preferred mode Sunday evening through
Tuesday evening with large areas of the western Great Plains showing
favorable strongly-curved clockwise hodographs 00z and 03z each
evening. These forecast hodographs, especially Monday evening,
suggest favorable tornado potential should enough surface moisture
pull back to far western Kansas (ideally, surface dewpoints 59 to
64F). As we head into Monday and/or Tuesday, (an) outflow
boundary(ies) could also play a role in any tornado potential which
will not be known in any sort of detail until the day of.
Regardless, the CAPE/shear profile will almost certainly support
very large hail well in excess of 2 inches in diameter with
supercells and perhaps an isolated giant hail report or two.
Eventually by Wednesday, the upper trough axis will be moving away
from the Great Plains, but broad westerly flow in the mid/upper
troposphere will remain with any cold advection/surface high
behind the departing high being quite weak. A stalling out frontal
zone around southwest KS or the OK-TX panhandles could be the
focus for yet another day of organized severe weather late
Wednesday/Wednesday evening. The GFS and Canadian models both show
another pronounced trough moving into the West late in the week,
but it is too early to tell how/where this will manifest into
severe weather risk across the Great Plains. Very hot temperatures
may spread northeast ahead of this trough Thursday and Friday
with 100-degree temperatures quite possible (especially far
southern counties and into western OK and TX panhandle).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

VFR conditions through the entire TAF period for all locations
with SKC through the morning before few high clouds push across
the CWA. Winds currently out of the southeast 10-15kts for all
locations and will pick up gusting to 25kts by 21Z during max
heating of the day allowing for the strongest mixing of the
boundary layer to the surface. After 04Z, these winds will
diminish due to night time cooling and a temperature inversion
setting up at the surface under the clear skies. Winds will pick
back up again out of the southeast after the end of the TAF period
along with thunderstorm chances, but none during the next 24
hours.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  96  65  94  68 /   0   0  10  20
GCK  97  65  94  66 /   0   0  10  30
EHA  98  64  96  64 /   0   0  30  20
LBL  97  65  95  66 /   0   0  20  20
HYS  98  65  93  68 /   0   0   0  20
P28  94  67  95  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lowe
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Lowe



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