Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 240909
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
409 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

...Updated Short Term and Long Term Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Rainfall event later today and tonight will be the main focus of the
Short Term forecast. Overnight water vapor loop + RAP analysis
revealed a rather healthy, yet elongated storm system from southern
Idaho east-northeastward into the Dakotas. A mid-level potential
vorticity (PV) anomaly across southern Idaho will push southeast
through the day, reaching northern Colorado by early this evening.
The very positively-tilted nature of the system itself will
contribute to strong anticyclogenesis at the surface, as is
typically the case with these types of system (1032mb surface high
over far northwestern Nebraska by early evening).

A region of showers with an isolated lightning flash here and there
will continue to push east along the I-70 corridor through early
this morning, although short term high-res models show this initial
activity waning by 12-15z, only to be replaced by another round of
showers in the same general area of far west central KS. The first
half of this event will be focused on west central KS, where the
grids will reflect mainly one-tenth to one-quarter inch of
precipitation along/north of K-96. The meat of the precipitation
event will then start to unfold across east-central/southeast CO in
the 00-03z time frame, which will expand in coverage and push into
southwest KS after 03z. This activity will be tied to the upper
level jetlet and PV anomaly itself, enhancing 700mb frontogenesis. A
widespread one-quarter to one-half inch of rainfall is likely to
fall generally east of U83, with highest amounts in south central KS
where the grids will reflect up to 0.65 in Pratt County.

Temperatures will be cool during the rain, with all the
precipitation occurring north of the surface front. 850mb
temperatures will bottom out in the +1 to +3C range through much of
the rainfall event later tonight. We do not think the thermodynamics
will support any wet snow, even in the higher elevation areas closer
to the Colorado border.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

After the Tuesday storm system exits, another wave will be quick on
its heels, but the lack of jet streak dynamics for ascent and also
lack of appreciable moisture will prevent a precipitation event of
note. We do have some 20 POPs in there for Thursday afternoon and
evening across south central KS areas. We will probably see frost
and perhaps a light freeze in far west central KS following the
Thursday system as temperatures bottom out with clearing sky and
light winds with a 1026mb surface high centered close by.

After that, upper level ridging will develop for the weekend, and we
will see temperatures start to shoot back up toward 70s and lower
80s. The longwave pattern will shift to one of troughing in the west
and ridging in the central/eastern CONUS toward late weekend into
early next week, and this should result in persistent south winds
until a lead shortwave trough moves out across the plains and brings
another front south. After Monday, there is considerable uncertainty
in how the sensible weather across southwest Kansas will play out,
but there is some increasing signal of strong/potentially severe
thunderstorm activity across some portion of the Central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Poor aviation weather will develop through this period, mainly in
the form of MVFR (and periodic IFR) flight category and increasing
rain coverage especially at the end of this period. The cold front
will be pushing through in the 15-18z time frame at all the
terminals, with winds increasing to around 20+ knots, 30kt in
gusts for a few hours immediately behind the front. North winds
will likely stabilize in the 15 to 18 knot range.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  39  57  38 /  20  80  20   0
GCK  59  37  58  36 /  50  80  20   0
EHA  58  38  60  38 /  30  60  20   0
LBL  68  39  60  37 /  20  80  20   0
HYS  58  39  55  37 /  70  60  30   0
P28  73  44  58  40 /  10  80  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid



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