Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 151039

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
539 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Overnight water vapor loop + RAP analysis revealed an impressive
deep trough across the western CONUS. The lead shortwave trough was
ejecting out of southern California into the Great Basin region with
enhanced upward vertical motion across the western Rockies.
Occasional lightning flashes were noted across portions of Utah,
western Colorado, and southern Wyoming indicating the strength of
the upward motion in this region. As the southern potential
vorticity anomaly pushes across the Four Corners today into northern
New Mexico, southwest flow will really become enhanced across the
central High Plains. +18 to +21C 850mb temperatures will expand
across western Kansas today, south of the deepening surface low.
This will translate to surface temperatures well into the 80s over
much of western Kansas. In fact, we should see some 84 to 86 degree
readings for highs in some spots, especially the Red Hills along the
OK border. Some records are likely to fall as well, including the
83F for Dodge City. Strong winds will also be the story, as they
usually are this time of year ahead of a strong storm. Southwest
winds will likely be 25-30 mph during the afternoon hours.

Intense upward vertical motion will likely spawn some very high
based showers across eastern Colorado, which may clip far west
central Kansas, even in the very dry surface air. By far, the
greatest concentration of shower activity will be up across
northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas, but we will have some
slight chance POPs as far south as northwestern Hamilton County.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

The very beginning of this time frame, Friday, will be quite
interesting indeed. A mid-latitude cyclone will be maturing just to
the north of southwest Kansas (again!), with the potential for some
shower activity to wrap back to the south around the backside of the
low perhaps as far south as Scott to Trego County. All indication is
that the mid level low will be somewhere across northern KS Friday
morning, which would almost certainly keep all the accumulating
precipitation to the north of I-70. The big story will be wind. Mid
level cold advection driving south into southwest Kansas will allow
lapse rates to steepen and mixing heights to increase as insolation
increases by late morning. It is looking like a formidable wind
event south/southwest of the cyclone with a northwest to southeast
corridor of potentially high winds midday through afternoon. CONSMOS
winds were used in this forecast, which has 25 to 40 mph sustained
winds over a good chunk of southwest Kansas. 50 to 55 knots at 700mb
on nearly all the models suggests that surface gusts will at least
be close to High Wind Warning criteria. For now, no High Wind
headline is in effect, but the next shift will need to investigate
this potential further.

A quiet Saturday is forecast in between storm systems with surface
high pressure ridge centered across the Central Plains including
southwest Kansas. Temperatures will top out in the lower to mid 60s
for most locations on light winds. It should be rather pleasant.
Things will change Sunday as the next storm system approaches. This
looks like a similar track, if not a touch farther south than
Friday`s storm. The latest ECMWF is even more south than its
previous run, which would put more of western Kansas into some
accumulating precipitation potential. The ECMWF closes off a tight
mid level cyclone over Gage, Oklahoma 06z Monday with an aggressive
convective signal just to the east across northern Oklahoma into
south central Kansas. Should this trend continue, we will have to
think about some strong/isolated severe thunderstorms clipping our
southeastern counties late Sunday evening/night. Even though the
track of this upcoming system is starting to look more favorable for
precipitation across our region, the low will be ripping quickly to
the east, so that would really limit the amount of precipitation it
would appear. Nevertheless, it is something, and our best chance at
widespread accumulating precipitation in a long while for most.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 536 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Strong south to southwest winds will be the main element of
interest for aviation today. Gusts this afternoon will be in the
30 to 35 knot range at times. Winds will decrease after sunset,
but not by all that much, given the close proximity of the
approaching storm system. Toward the end of this period, winds
will gradually veer to a westerly direction. VFR is forecast
through the entire period.


Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

A red flag warning was collaborated for a large portion of Kansas
today with 12 to 18 percent afternoon RH forecast, especially west
of U283. All locations will see strong south/southwest winds in the
20-30 mph range. Temperatures will be very warm, with highs in the
lower to mid 80s most locations.

Even windier conditions are forecast Friday, although the humidity
may be a bit higher (above Red Flag criteria). Nevertheless, given
the high wind potential, a Fire Weather Watch is in effect, but the
best potential for true Red Flag conditions look to be mainly
southwest of a Scott City to Dodge City to Pratt line.


DDC  85  47  67  30 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  84  44  65  29 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  80  43  69  32 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  84  43  70  30 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  83  49  59  29 /   0  10  10   0
P28  80  49  72  34 /   0  10   0   0


Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-

Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for KSZ043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.



SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
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