Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 162302

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
602 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

The intense cyclone that is causing the very strong wind today is
moving east and will enter Missouri late tonight. As this system
moves east this afternoon and evening, our wind will gradually
start to decrease to where after 10-11pm, wind should be under
10-15 mph throughout Southwest Kansas, and will remain light
through the morning. Wind this afternoon along a Garden
City/Dodge City/Pratt line has been flowing at 30-40 mph
sustained, with gusts to 60 mph this afternoon, which lines up
well today`s high wind warning. Though wind throughout all of
Southwest Kansas has been very strong. Hang in there. Tomorrow
will be better.

Temperatures tonight will bottom out below freezing behind the
cold front due to light wind and clear skies. Saturday high
pressure begins to move in, keeping wind light through the day. As
a low in eastern Colorado begins to deepen late in the day, wind
will flip south, allowing temperatures to warm into the 60s when
all is said and done on Saturday. Wind toward the Colorado border
will gust to 20-25 mph due to the increased pressure gradient in
the afternoon. Modified Gulf moisture will begin to transport
toward the Central Plains on Saturday, ahead of the next storm system
on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

The GFS, ECMWF and the NAM all have had good agreement of a mid-
level closed low moving south of Western Kansas and attendant
surface low moving through or below our CWA Sunday night into
Monday. This system appears to have enough forcing despite the
moderate moisture available to provide the first good
precipitation event of the year for a lot of our region. However,
there is a variance in how much moisture we may receive due to
the storm track. Regardless, we`ll take any precipitation we can
get at this point.

Monday morning and Monday, wind will be very strong behind the
cold front. Put a blend of models in the forecast, however the
forecast winds may still not be high enough. Temperatures will be
cooler on Monday and Tuesday: 40s/50s.

Wednesday, warm air advection sets in and begins a warm up for the
rest of the week. Thursday and Friday look to reach into the 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Saturday
afternoon. Gusty northwest winds will subside mid to late evening,
dropping below 20kt as a strong surface low in eastern Kansas pushes
eastward into Missouri tonight. Light and variable winds are then
expected through early Saturday afternoon as surface high pressure
shifts east across the Northern Plains.


Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Red Flag Warning is in effect through 8 pm today due to high wind
and low relative humidities at 15-20 percent, especially in far
Southwest Kansas. Saturday afternoon, counties along the Colorado
border will drop into 20 percent relative humidity with wind at
20 mph. Have held off a watch at this time. Sunday afternoon, wind
will be stronger and relative humidity in the 15-20 percent range
toward the Colorado border, however have held off on a watch for
now in the event of precipitation occurring.


DDC  31  66  38  68 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  28  66  37  70 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  29  67  37  70 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  30  67  37  72 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  29  61  35  65 /   0   0   0  20
P28  34  65  38  65 /   0   0   0  30


High Wind Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for



SHORT TERM...Reynolds
LONG TERM...Reynolds
FIRE WEATHER...Reynolds is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.