116
FXUS63 KDDC 112301
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
601 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will push through the region tonight with showers
  and thunderstorms possible (>50%) mainly late this evening to
  overnight

- Cooler (afternoon highs in the 80s) along with dry conditions
  will then prevail for the remainder of the weekend

- Chance (>30%) for showers and thunderstorms returns by middle
  of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Water vapor imagery from this afternoon reveals a relatively flat
upper air flow regime across the CONUS although with two notable
short waves seen rippling across central US. The first wave
stretches from the Upper Midwest into eastern KS/OK while the other
wave extends from North Dakota back into the Central Rockies.  The
first wave is leaving an area of subsidence behind it across the
western half of KS with little in the wave of cloud cover. However,
the second wave is already helping initiate convection along the
Front Range to Sangre De Cristo ranges in CO and NM. Closer to the
surface, the aforementioned first wave has helped push a weak front
southward earlier this morning but now nearly stalled just south of
the Kansas...Oklahoma state line. While there is decent MLCAPE of
2000-2500 J/kg along this boundary and only modest inhibition...the
subsidence behind the exiting wave is helping create a very dry LCL-
LFC layer that is limiting initiation as noted by only shallow CU.
While there is still some potential (<20%) for deep convection to
initiate near the KS...OK state line into the early evening... the
overall shear profile as noted in the KDDC 88D VWP profile is very
weak which suggests any convection that does develop will struggle
to organize. The lone exception to that rule is higher DCAPE values
in excess of 1000 J/kg that would support decent downdraft
potential even with shorter duration storms.

Otherwise...attention will shift toward later this evening into the
overnight hours as the aforementioned wave across the Central
Rockies pushes a secondary cold front into western KS. While MCS
maintenance will be marginal...there is a modest 30-35 kt LLJ that
noses into southwest Kansas by 06Z right as the front moves into the
area.  This should allow convection to move out of CO/NM and blossom
over far western KS by midnight. With shear profiles remaining
weak...unlikely this will result in a widespread severe convective
threat.  This convection will then slowly shift east-southeast
across the area during the overnight to early morning hours with the
highest probability (around 30%) for rainfall to exceed 0.5-in
generally west of US Highway 283.

Other than some lingering showers/thunderstorms during the morning
to early afternoon hours...Saturday will see the short wave and
associated front slide east into the lower Great Plains. This will
result in subsidence and dry weather prevailing by mid afternoon
along with decreasing cloud cover. Nonetheless, this will result in
a cooler start to the weekend with afternoon highs staying in the
80s.

For the remainder of the weekend into early next week ENS and GFES
means reveal upper ridging building over the Central Rockies and
adjacent Central High Plains with dry conditions prevailing
(probability of exceeding 0.10-in near zero). This will also result
in temperatures gradually increasing back into the 90s for afternoon
highs by Tuesday. For the middle to end of the week there are some
signs in the ENS and GEFS means of another monsoonal oriented
moisture plume pushing into the region that interacts with a
northern stream short wave. This will bring the next associated
chance for thunderstorms and slightly cooler temps (probability
of exceeding 90 F <30%)

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 601 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

VFR conditions are expected with mostly clear skies until the
overnight hours when a line of storms is expected to move through SW
Kansas and impact all terminals. A lighter (up to 10 KTs) E/NE wind
is expected through the period excluding thunderstorm wind gusts.
Storms are forecast to reach LBL by around 5Z with the rest of the
terminals lagging a couple hours. Due to prominent uncertainty in
precise timing, coverage, and duration, a PROB30 group was using in
lieu of a prevailing weather group. If the storms develop and move
as forecast, then flight conditions are expected to be lowered
potentially even lower than MVFR for all terminals.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJohnson
AVIATION...KBJ