Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 241727

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1227 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 108 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Precip chances will remain absent across western Kansas today into
tonight as weak upper level ridging moves eastward out of the
Colorado Rockies into the Central Plains during the period.
Regardless of a slowly intensifying westerly flow aloft, much drier
air in the lower/mid levels and a lack of instability will keep
precip chances out of the region through the first half of the
weekend. Much cooler air filtering into western Kansas today will
result in more seasonal high temperatures this afternoon. Short
range models indicate H85 temperatures dropping well below 10C
across central Kansas to the mid teens(C) in extreme southwest
Kansas by this afternoon. Highs will likely struggle to reach the
60s(F) if at all in central Kansas, especially near the I-70
corridor. Highs in the 60s(F) are expected further south and west
with the lower 70s(F) still possible near and along the Oklahoma
border in southwest Kansas. Look for lows back down into the
30s(F) in central Kansas Saturday night with the 40s(F) further
south and west.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

There is an outside chance for precip across portions of central
Kansas early Sunday as a weak upper level disturbance lifts
northeast across the region within an increasingly difluent
southwest flow aloft. As the southwest flow aloft begins to
intensify somewhat, short range models show an east-southeasterly
upslope flow developing across the high plains as high pressure
shifts eastward across the Great Lakes. Increased lift in
conjunction with the H5 vort max transitioning through the flow
aloft may be sufficient enough to support light rain/drizzle
development generally across central Kansas early Sunday morning.
However, weak QPF signals and a lack of richer low/mid level
moisture suggest insignificant precip amounts at best.

Another round of precip may be possible again Sunday night into
early Monday the southwest flow aloft continues to intensify
downstream of a deepening upper level trough across the Desert
Southwest. Near the surface, a prevailing southerly flow will
draw moisture into central and eastern portions of southwest
Kansas resulting in an axis of increased instability. Combined
with more favorable shear profiles, this will increase the
potential for showers and a few isolated thunderstorms late Sunday
into early Monday. A few showers may also be possible Monday
night into Tuesday in association with a cold front forecast to
push through western Kansas.

A slow to erode cooler air mass in central Kansas and a deepening
surface low across eastern Colorado should help create a tight
temperature gradient across western Kansas Sunday. Highs are only
expected up into the 50s(F) in central Kansas while much warmer
air spreads into extreme southwest Kansas within a southwesterly
flow, likely pushing highs into the 70s(F). Cooler temperatures
return Tuesday in wake of a cold front pushing through western
Kansas sometime in the Monday night/early Tuesday morning time


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

North winds will gradually shift around to the east then southeast
through this TAF period, in response to the next leeside trough
development over eastern Colorado. The increasing upslope winds
will lead to widespread IFR conditions in low stratus by daybreak
Sunday. IFR/MVFR ceiling will likely persist through the end of
this TAF period (18Z Sunday), especially GCK and HYS terminals.


DDC  68  40  63  44 /   0   0  10  20
GCK  69  39  68  39 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  70  42  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  70  43  77  41 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  60  35  54  41 /   0   0  20  40
P28  66  39  60  48 /   0   0  30  40




LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Umscheid is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.