Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 201710

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1210 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Desperately needed rain is entering the western counties on
schedule as of midday, as diffluence increases aloft well ahead
of a 555 dm closed low near Moab, Utah. Elevated convection along
the KS/CO border has been more robust than expected, supported by
MUCAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg per mesoanalysis. Severe
weather is not expected. Still, lightning is quite prevalent with
the stronger updrafts and small hail is possible with the stronger
storms. Given convective trends, expanded the isolated thunder
mention northward to the US 50 corridor through this evening.
Otherwise, bands of rain showers will continue to spread eastward
across SW KS this afternoon as forcing for ascent increases
associated with the warm conveyor belt. This will be the main
event for much of the CWA through this evening, with a widespread
QPF of 0.25"-0.75" for all zones. Is it enough rain? Absolutely
not. But the most widespread soaking rain we have seen in months
is more than welcome. The initial bands of activity will advance
into central Kansas after midnight, replaced by very moist upslope
flow and lowering stratus. 12z NAM continues to depict the
dryslot aloft to enter SW KS between midnight and sunrise, as the
closed upper low arrives in Baca county, Colorado. Some scattered
light showers will be scattered about, but for the most part only
expecting drizzle, stratus, and perhaps some local fog overnight.
Temperatures tonight will hold in the lower 40s for most zones.

Saturday...Cloudy cool and damp. Slow moving closed low only
trudges eastward across SW KS, taking most of the day to cross the
CWA. As such, stratus will reign with no sunshine expected.
Eventually, the upper low reconsolidates in NW Oklahoma by 7 pm.
Models have been differing on how much additional rainfall occurs
Saturday, so just kept chance/likely pops for rain showers in the
grids with modest additional QPF amounts. Another 0.10-0.25" is
most likely across the SE zones, closest to the reorganizing upper
low in Oklahoma late in the day. Obviously, temperatures will not
move much Saturday, spending most of the day in the 40s. Light
winds will trend NEly through the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

The aforementioned system will slowly move eastward away from
Kansas Sunday into early next week. Some lingering rain can be
expected Saturday, particularly in south central Kansas. Highs
will be cool Saturday in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Highs will
rebound into the 60s for Sunday and Monday. Lows should drop to
the mid 30s to near 40 degrees for Sunday and Monday mornings with
some clearing and light winds. A few places in far western Kansas
could fall to the freezing point. Another upper level system is
expected to approach western Kansas in northwest flow by Tuesday
along with chances for rain showers Monday night into Tuesday.
Upper level troughing will persist over the upper Midwest and
Great Lakes mid to late next week, which is a dry pattern for
western Kansas. Cool mornings and mild afternoons can be expected.
Some locations in western central Kansas could fall to near the
freezing point Thursday and Friday mornings.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

High confidence that flight categories will degrade sharply this
TAF cycle, with IFR/LIFR stratus cigs and reduced vis in BR/-SHRA.
Expect numerous -SHRA to reach GCK/LBL by 21z, and DDC/HYS during
the 21-00z time frame. Rain will reach moderate intensity at times,
reducing visibility. Instability is limited, with the best chance
of VCTS at LBL (near the Oklahoma border) this afternoon/this
evening. This initial round of rain will progress into central
Kansas around 06z Sat. Behind this initial activity, short term
models all agree cigs will lower sharply into the LIFR category at
all airports, in response to moist E/SE upslope flow over (by
then) moist soils. Areas of BR/DZ/-RA will continue through
Saturday, with continued IFR/LIFR cigs and poor flying weather, as
the primary closed low aloft slowly crosses SW KS during the day.
Expect rapidly improving conditions Saturday night, with VFR
expected Sunday.


DDC  58  42  48  36 / 100  90  60  20
GCK  52  41  52  35 / 100  90  50  20
EHA  49  39  53  36 / 100  80  50  10
LBL  54  42  51  37 / 100  80  60  20
HYS  61  42  47  35 /  40  80  60  30
P28  64  45  48  41 /  30  80  70  40




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