


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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211 FXUS63 KDDC 271705 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1205 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook of Marginal Risk for our southeastern counties mainly along the Oklahoma line for slow- moving thunderstorm potential (late this afternoon/evening). - Saturday and Sunday hottest days of the 7-day period with widespread mid to upper 90s and heat indices around 100 degrees. - Next cold front will bring in higher rainfall chances Sunday Night into Monday, but severe weather risk is quite small given poor wind shear environment. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 The overnight satellite and objective analysis fields showed a fairly quiet setting across western Kansas. There was a remnant mesoscale convective system (MCS) still festering well to our south along the Red River region near Childress, TX, and this was the closest convective activity to southwest Kansas overnight. This small MCS seemed to be tied to the lingering mid level moist plume as well as within a subtle right-entrance region to a 250mb jetlet which extended from New Mexico into northwest Kansas. This subsynoptic jetlet is not expected to move much or change characteristic much today, and may be enough to help spawn renewed surface-based convection in this same general region and perhaps northward into the Red Hills region of our forecast area (Clark- Comanche-Barber County). For that reason, we will have some Slight Chance (20%) POPs in our southeastern zones and mention potential heavy rainfall rates with strongest storms, aligning with latest WPC ERO Marginal Risk that was just issued at 0815Z. Other than that, the rest of the DDC CWA will remain fairly quiet and very warm with afternoon temperatures warming to highs about 3 or 4 degrees hotter than yesterday into the lower to perhaps mid 90s. Afternoon temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be the hottest of the forecast period as 850mb temperatures climb to the +25 to +27C range, supporting surface temperatures well into the mid to upper 90s most areas. The absence of any appreciable forcing for ascent Saturday will result in a dry forecast, but by late Sunday afternoon we will be watching a cold front push south into western Kansas. Global models are in pretty good agreement with more organized thunderstorm development affecting at least some portion of the DDC CWA in vicinity of this frontal zone, although there are the typical timing and location forecast challenges. NBM has greatest QPF signal farther east deeper into central and eastern Kansas with only 20-30% chance of 0.25" or greater QPF over a 24-hr period ending 12Z Monday. As the front continues to push south Monday, so will the thunderstorm and heavier rain potential, which is also reflected in the NBM with the 20-30% probs of 0.25"+ mainly across the southeastern half of the DDC CWA with 40%+ probs into the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. The front will result in "cooler" temperatures early next week with highs Monday through Wednesday in the 80s for the most part. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1157 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Light south winds generally around or less than 12 knots are anticipated through this set of TAFs. Although isolated (less than 10% coverage) thunderstorms might occur later this evening (after 3z) the areal extend is not high enough to consider including in any of theses terminals forecasts. VFR conditions anticipated though least 3z. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Umscheid AVIATION...Russell