Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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466
FXUS63 KDDC 201600
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

A strong upper level disturbance was approaching from the west.
This system will be coming out into the plains in two major
pieces. The first vorticity lobe will rotate across the high
plains today and then the next system is expected to move across
the southern plains on Saturday. Most of our rain will be with the
lead system, but south central Kansas will also see some rain
with the second system. Low level moisture inflow into this system
is marginal since low level trajectories are from the east and
southeast around cool high pressure system instead of out of the
Gulf. Lapse rates do not support much in the way of thunderstorm
activity; but a couple of rumbles can`t be ruled out along the
Oklahoma state line. Upped rain chances to 100% much of the area
for this afternoon and evening. Widespread rain amounts to a half
inch can be expected by Saturday, with locally higher amounts over
three quarters of an inch in west central and south central
Kansas. Highs today will be held down by clouds and afternoon rain
in far western Kansas. Highs in Dodge City will be in the early
afternoon before the rain starts. The warmest readings will be in
central and south central Kansas with highs in the lower 60s
there. Temperatures tonight will be held up by cloud cover with
mainly lower 40s for lows.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

The aforementioned system will slowly move eastward away from
Kansas Sunday into early next week. Some lingering rain can be
expected Saturday, particularly in south central Kansas. Highs
will be cool Saturday in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Highs will
rebound into the 60s for Sunday and Monday. Lows should drop to
the mid 30s to near 40 degrees for Sunday and Monday mornings with
some clearing and light winds. A few places in far western Kansas
could fall to the freezing point. Another upper level system is
expected to approach western Kansas in northwest flow by Tuesday
along with chances for rain showers Monday night into Tuesday.
Upper level troughing will persist over the upper Midwest and
Great Lakes mid to late next week, which is a dry pattern for
western Kansas. Cool mornings and mild afternoons can be expected.
Some locations in western central Kansas could fall to near the
freezing point Thursday and Friday mornings.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

High confidence that flight categories will degrade sharply this
TAF cycle, with IFR/LIFR stratus cigs and reduced vis in BR/-SHRA.
Expect numerous -SHRA to reach GCK/LBL by 21z, and DDC/HYS during
the 21-00z time frame. Rain will reach moderate intensity at times,
reducing visibility. Instability is limited, with the best chance
of VCTS at LBL (near the Oklahoma border) this afternoon/this
evening. This initial round of rain will progress into central
Kansas around 06z Sat. Behind this initial activity, short term
models all agree cigs will lower sharply into the LIFR category at
all airports, in response to moist E/SE upslope flow over (by
then) moist soils. Areas of BR/DZ/-RA will continue through
Saturday, with continued IFR/LIFR cigs and poor flying weather, as
the primary closed low aloft slowly crosses SW KS during the day.
Expect rapidly improving conditions Saturday night, with VFR
expected Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  42  49  36 / 100 100  60  20
GCK  57  41  49  35 / 100  90  60  20
EHA  49  39  51  36 / 100  80  50  10
LBL  55  42  49  37 / 100  90  60  20
HYS  61  42  48  35 /  40  80  60  30
P28  64  45  51  41 /  30  80  70  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Turner



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