393
FXUS63 KDDC 091702
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1202 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- MCS potential tonight mainly for areas along and east of highway
283

- Increasing potential of widespread storms moving across western
Kansas late Thursday night and early Friday morning

- Cooler temperatures and more rain and storms for this weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

07z upper air and surface analysis shows a 598 dm high centered over
Arizona with an upper level shortwave rotating on the northeast side
of the high moving through northwest Kansas which has led to some
spotty rain showers and storms around Dighton that are continuing to
diminish.  Moisture profiles continue to show good amounts of
moisture in the lower levels across much of southwest Kansas which
will play a part in our temperature and thunderstorm forecast for
today.

Short term model forecasts for today show the 598 dm high continue
to stay basically over Arizona with the stronger westerlies rotating
along the north and northeast side from Wyoming into western Kansas.
Dew point forecast have the better mixing out of moisture mainly
along and west of highway 83 where the greatest probability of
reaching 100 degrees this afternoon will be along the Colorado
border.  Later this afternoon with the left exit region of the jet
leading to upper level divergence and a shortwave developing in
central Nebraska we should see a complex of storms develop and dive
basically straight south as the upper level steering will have winds
out of the north-northwest.  Given that the higher moisture will be
in our eastern zones and 700 mb temperatures should be cooler (~10-
12 C) the cap should be weaker to allow ongoing MCS development and
maintenance as the storms enter into northern Kansas.  Severe weather
threat with these storms will be mainly gusty winds of 60 mph or
greater, brief heavy rain, and isolated large hail.  Timeframe for
these storms will be late afternoon to sunset around Hays and then
in the evening to near midnight for areas from Dodge City to
Medicine Lodge.

Thursday the model trends have been shifting the strongest of the
heat to the west and south as a stout trough will dampen the ridge
and upper high in the desert southwest.  So far many short term and
global models still think decent mixing from southwest winds will
occur and temperatures will reach into the upper 90s to low 100s.
However the NAM is trending to have less mixing and an area of
enhanced moisture ahead of the shortwave coming out of Colorado
Thursday night.  Given that models haven`t been handling the
moisture profiles recently and due to the higher amount of moisture
in the low levels this trend may start to show in other models.
Thursday night as the shortwave comes out of COlorado another round
of thunderstorms will develop in the front range and evolve into a
squall line that will move into western Kansas after sunset.  SPC
has kept a slight risk of severe weather mainly along and north of
the K-96 corridor and wind gusts greater than 60 mph will continue
to be the threat.

For the weekend models have the stronger longwave trough moving
through the northern plains which should bring a stronger cold front
for this time of year into Kansas during the day on Friday.   The
frontal boundary is showing signs of stalling out along the highway
50 corridor from Friday night into Saturday.  With northwest flow
bringing in upper level lift combining with good lower level
moisture and the frontal boundary models have areas of higher QPF (>
1 inch) starting to appear in southwest Kansas with NBM
probabilities of 10% chance of getting more than 1 inch.  WPC has
highlighted heavy rain potential in southwest Kansas for this
weekend and isolated flash flooding potential can`t be ruled out if
these storms train along the front.  The active weather pattern will
probably continue into next week as LREF upper level trends have the
upper high staying over the western CONUS and the stronger
westerlies and shortwaves continuing to move through the central and
northern plains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

At the onset of this TAF period, winds were out of the southwest
at LBL and GCK but will gradually become south-southeasterly
later in the day and this evening in the 11 to 14 knot range.
The probability of thunderstorms impacting the airports this
afternoon and evening is too low to include in the TAF, however
we will include a PROB30 at HYS later tonight as a thunderstorm
cluster may clip the Hays area.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Umscheid